Raymond McKay commands an 88.5% implied probability as the trader consensus favorite to win Rhode Island's Republican U.S. Senate primary on September 8, 2026, due to his established name recognition and grassroots organization from the 2024 GOP primary, where he captured 35.6% against Rep. Patricia Morgan despite her victory. As a retired Army veteran and former Warwick IT manager, McKay's focus on curbing spending, border security, and veteran support resonates in the low-turnout primary. Perennial candidate Allen Waters, at 2.3%, trails with a history of unopposed primaries but weak general election showings (e.g., 33% in 2020 Senate race). No significant developments have emerged in the past 30 days to alter the field, which remains limited to these two contenders. Late entrants or shifts in party endorsements could introduce uncertainty ahead of filing deadlines.