SpaceX’s recent V3 Starship milestones, particularly Flight 13’s July 2026 success with Starlink V3 deployment, in-space Raptor relight, and the first intact Ship recovery after controlled reentry, form the core driver behind the 74% implied probability for full reusability before 2028. Booster catches and limited reuses have already been demonstrated, while V3’s Raptor 3 engines and heat-shield refinements address key barriers to rapid turnaround for both stages. Traders weigh these engineering gains against remaining hurdles such as the unproven Ship tower catch, FAA licensing timelines, and the need for multiple orbital reflights. The imminent Flight 14 orbital attempt and Elon Musk’s targets for upper-stage recovery within months further support the current market consensus on achievable timelines.