Traders assign a 98.7% probability that the United States will not default on its debt by the end of 2027, reflecting consistent congressional action to suspend or raise the debt limit ahead of any X-date. The most recent debt ceiling increase occurred in 2025, and estimates place the next statutory limit breach between late winter and mid-summer 2027, followed by Treasury extraordinary measures that could extend several months further. A continuing resolution passed on September 1, 2026, funds operations through December and signals ongoing willingness to manage fiscal deadlines without disruption. Strong institutional incentives to protect Treasury market functioning, credit ratings, and economic stability reinforce this consensus. Potential shifts could arise from post-midterm legislative gridlock or unforeseen revenue shocks, though historical patterns favor resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoIl default degli Stati Uniti sul debito entro il 2027?
Il default degli Stati Uniti sul debito entro il 2027?
Sì
1% probabilità
$17,090 Vol.
$17,090 Vol.
30 dic 2026
Sì
1% probabilità
$17,090 Vol.
$17,090 Vol.
30 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Traders assign a 98.7% probability that the United States will not default on its debt by the end of 2027, reflecting consistent congressional action to suspend or raise the debt limit ahead of any X-date. The most recent debt ceiling increase occurred in 2025, and estimates place the next statutory limit breach between late winter and mid-summer 2027, followed by Treasury extraordinary measures that could extend several months further. A continuing resolution passed on September 1, 2026, funds operations through December and signals ongoing willingness to manage fiscal deadlines without disruption. Strong institutional incentives to protect Treasury market functioning, credit ratings, and economic stability reinforce this consensus. Potential shifts could arise from post-midterm legislative gridlock or unforeseen revenue shocks, though historical patterns favor resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Mercato aperto: Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ET
Volume
$17,090Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Traders assign a 98.7% probability that the United States will not default on its debt by the end of 2027, reflecting consistent congressional action to suspend or raise the debt limit ahead of any X-date. The most recent debt ceiling increase occurred in 2025, and estimates place the next statutory limit breach between late winter and mid-summer 2027, followed by Treasury extraordinary measures that could extend several months further. A continuing resolution passed on September 1, 2026, funds operations through December and signals ongoing willingness to manage fiscal deadlines without disruption. Strong institutional incentives to protect Treasury market functioning, credit ratings, and economic stability reinforce this consensus. Potential shifts could arise from post-midterm legislative gridlock or unforeseen revenue shocks, though historical patterns favor resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Volume
$17,090Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 98.7% probability that the United States will not default on its debt by the end of 2027, reflecting consistent congressional action to suspend or raise the debt limit ahead of any X-date. The most recent debt ceiling increase occurred in 2025, and estimates place the next statutory limit breach between late winter and mid-summer 2027, followed by Treasury extraordinary measures that could extend several months further. A continuing resolution passed on September 1, 2026, funds operations through December and signals ongoing willingness to manage fiscal deadlines without disruption. Strong institutional incentives to protect Treasury market functioning, credit ratings, and economic stability reinforce this consensus. Potential shifts could arise from post-midterm legislative gridlock or unforeseen revenue shocks, though historical patterns favor resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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