The collapse of marathon 21-hour US-Iran talks in Islamabad on April 11 drove trader consensus toward a 62.9% implied probability of no nuclear deal by April 30, as core disputes persist over Iran's uranium enrichment and permanent restrictions on weaponization. US demands for a 20-year suspension and facility dismantlement clashed with Tehran's insistence on sanctions relief and recognition of its nuclear rights, with Vice President Vance stating Iran rejected the terms. Amid a fragile ceasefire nearing expiration on April 21 and US naval enforcement in the Strait of Hormuz following the deadlock, upcoming second-round negotiations face steep hurdles despite mutual interest in de-escalation. Historical JCPOA breakdowns underscore the challenges in bridging gaps before the deadline.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoAccordo nucleare USA-Iran entro il 30 aprile?
Accordo nucleare USA-Iran entro il 30 aprile?
Sì
$1,234,490 Vol.
$1,234,490 Vol.
30 apr 2026
Sì
$1,234,490 Vol.
$1,234,490 Vol.
30 apr 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.The collapse of marathon 21-hour US-Iran talks in Islamabad on April 11 drove trader consensus toward a 62.9% implied probability of no nuclear deal by April 30, as core disputes persist over Iran's uranium enrichment and permanent restrictions on weaponization. US demands for a 20-year suspension and facility dismantlement clashed with Tehran's insistence on sanctions relief and recognition of its nuclear rights, with Vice President Vance stating Iran rejected the terms. Amid a fragile ceasefire nearing expiration on April 21 and US naval enforcement in the Strait of Hormuz following the deadlock, upcoming second-round negotiations face steep hurdles despite mutual interest in de-escalation. Historical JCPOA breakdowns underscore the challenges in bridging gaps before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Mercato aperto: Mar 9, 2026, 4:56 PM ET
Volume
$1,234,490Data di fine
30 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 9, 2026, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.The collapse of marathon 21-hour US-Iran talks in Islamabad on April 11 drove trader consensus toward a 62.9% implied probability of no nuclear deal by April 30, as core disputes persist over Iran's uranium enrichment and permanent restrictions on weaponization. US demands for a 20-year suspension and facility dismantlement clashed with Tehran's insistence on sanctions relief and recognition of its nuclear rights, with Vice President Vance stating Iran rejected the terms. Amid a fragile ceasefire nearing expiration on April 21 and US naval enforcement in the Strait of Hormuz following the deadlock, upcoming second-round negotiations face steep hurdles despite mutual interest in de-escalation. Historical JCPOA breakdowns underscore the challenges in bridging gaps before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Volume
$1,234,518Data di fine
30 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 9, 2026, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The collapse of marathon 21-hour US-Iran talks in Islamabad on April 11 drove trader consensus toward a 62.9% implied probability of no nuclear deal by April 30, as core disputes persist over Iran's uranium enrichment and permanent restrictions on weaponization. US demands for a 20-year suspension and facility dismantlement clashed with Tehran's insistence on sanctions relief and recognition of its nuclear rights, with Vice President Vance stating Iran rejected the terms. Amid a fragile ceasefire nearing expiration on April 21 and US naval enforcement in the Strait of Hormuz following the deadlock, upcoming second-round negotiations face steep hurdles despite mutual interest in de-escalation. Historical JCPOA breakdowns underscore the challenges in bridging gaps before the deadline.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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