Recent US trade data releases and currency fluctuations have kept probabilities for the June 2026 trade deficit tightly clustered, with the 100B+ outcome at 50.0% and multiple lower brackets near 49.5%. Traders are weighing persistent import demand driven by domestic consumption against potential export gains from energy shipments and manufacturing resilience. Key swing factors include the latest dollar index levels, any revisions to prior months' figures from the Census Bureau, and incoming indicators on global supply chains or tariff effects. The balanced pricing reflects uncertainty ahead of full June statistics and subsequent economic releases that could clarify the monthly balance.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato90-100B 44%
100B+ 40.4%
80-90B 11%
<50B 8%
NUOVO
NUOVO
4 ago 2026
<50B
8%
50-60B
12%
60-70B
12%
70-80B
38%
80-90B
11%
90-100B
44%
100B+
40%
90-100B 44%
100B+ 40.4%
80-90B 11%
<50B 8%
NUOVO
NUOVO
4 ago 2026
<50B
$33 Vol.
8%
50-60B
$85 Vol.
12%
60-70B
$78 Vol.
12%
70-80B
$151 Vol.
38%
80-90B
$46 Vol.
11%
90-100B
$18 Vol.
44%
100B+
$3 Vol.
40%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Deficit for June 2026, according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report scheduled for August 4, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report for the specified month is expected to be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/international-trade-goods-and-services
Note: This market will resolve based on the Monthly Deficit figure. The Three-Month Moving Average figure will have no bearing on this market. Any revisions to the Trade Deficit figure for the specified month made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for the specified month will not be considered.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent US trade data releases and currency fluctuations have kept probabilities for the June 2026 trade deficit tightly clustered, with the 100B+ outcome at 50.0% and multiple lower brackets near 49.5%. Traders are weighing persistent import demand driven by domestic consumption against potential export gains from energy shipments and manufacturing resilience. Key swing factors include the latest dollar index levels, any revisions to prior months' figures from the Census Bureau, and incoming indicators on global supply chains or tariff effects. The balanced pricing reflects uncertainty ahead of full June statistics and subsequent economic releases that could clarify the monthly balance.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Deficit for June 2026, according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report scheduled for August 4, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report for the specified month is expected to be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/international-trade-goods-and-services
Note: This market will resolve based on the Monthly Deficit figure. The Three-Month Moving Average figure will have no bearing on this market. Any revisions to the Trade Deficit figure for the specified month made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for the specified month will not be considered.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report for the specified month is expected to be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/international-trade-goods-and-services
Note: This market will resolve based on the Monthly Deficit figure. The Three-Month Moving Average figure will have no bearing on this market. Any revisions to the Trade Deficit figure for the specified month made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for the specified month will not be considered.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Mercato aperto: Jul 29, 2026, 7:08 PM ET
Volume
$414Data di fine
4 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 29, 2026, 7:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Deficit for June 2026, according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report scheduled for August 4, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report for the specified month is expected to be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/international-trade-goods-and-services
Note: This market will resolve based on the Monthly Deficit figure. The Three-Month Moving Average figure will have no bearing on this market. Any revisions to the Trade Deficit figure for the specified month made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for the specified month will not be considered.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent US trade data releases and currency fluctuations have kept probabilities for the June 2026 trade deficit tightly clustered, with the 100B+ outcome at 50.0% and multiple lower brackets near 49.5%. Traders are weighing persistent import demand driven by domestic consumption against potential export gains from energy shipments and manufacturing resilience. Key swing factors include the latest dollar index levels, any revisions to prior months' figures from the Census Bureau, and incoming indicators on global supply chains or tariff effects. The balanced pricing reflects uncertainty ahead of full June statistics and subsequent economic releases that could clarify the monthly balance.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Deficit for June 2026, according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report scheduled for August 4, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report for the specified month is expected to be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/international-trade-goods-and-services
Note: This market will resolve based on the Monthly Deficit figure. The Three-Month Moving Average figure will have no bearing on this market. Any revisions to the Trade Deficit figure for the specified month made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for the specified month will not be considered.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report for the specified month is expected to be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/international-trade-goods-and-services
Note: This market will resolve based on the Monthly Deficit figure. The Three-Month Moving Average figure will have no bearing on this market. Any revisions to the Trade Deficit figure for the specified month made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for the specified month will not be considered.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volume
$414Data di fine
4 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 29, 2026, 7:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent US trade data releases and currency fluctuations have kept probabilities for the June 2026 trade deficit tightly clustered, with the 100B+ outcome at 50.0% and multiple lower brackets near 49.5%. Traders are weighing persistent import demand driven by domestic consumption against potential export gains from energy shipments and manufacturing resilience. Key swing factors include the latest dollar index levels, any revisions to prior months' figures from the Census Bureau, and incoming indicators on global supply chains or tariff effects. The balanced pricing reflects uncertainty ahead of full June statistics and subsequent economic releases that could clarify the monthly balance.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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