Incumbent Democrat Mark Warner holds a commanding position in the 2026 Virginia Senate race, reflected in trader consensus pricing a Democratic victory near 95%. Recent polls from May and June 2026 show Warner leading Republican nominee Bert Mizusawa by 17–26 points among likely voters, consistent with the state's Democratic lean and Warner's established fundraising and name recognition advantages. Mizusawa secured the Republican nomination in the August 4 primary after a contested field, yet general-election surveys indicate limited movement in the margin since then. Forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic, underscoring structural barriers for Republicans. A late national partisan shift, major scandal, or significant turnout surprise could narrow the gap, though no such developments have materialized in the past month.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$22,407 Vol.
$22,407 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Democrat
95%
Republican
5%
$22,407 Vol.
$22,407 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Democrat
$15,666 Vol.
95%
Republican
$6,742 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Virginia U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democrat Mark Warner holds a commanding position in the 2026 Virginia Senate race, reflected in trader consensus pricing a Democratic victory near 95%. Recent polls from May and June 2026 show Warner leading Republican nominee Bert Mizusawa by 17–26 points among likely voters, consistent with the state's Democratic lean and Warner's established fundraising and name recognition advantages. Mizusawa secured the Republican nomination in the August 4 primary after a contested field, yet general-election surveys indicate limited movement in the margin since then. Forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic, underscoring structural barriers for Republicans. A late national partisan shift, major scandal, or significant turnout surprise could narrow the gap, though no such developments have materialized in the past month.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Virginia U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Mercato aperto: Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ET
Volume
$22,407Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Virginia U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democrat Mark Warner holds a commanding position in the 2026 Virginia Senate race, reflected in trader consensus pricing a Democratic victory near 95%. Recent polls from May and June 2026 show Warner leading Republican nominee Bert Mizusawa by 17–26 points among likely voters, consistent with the state's Democratic lean and Warner's established fundraising and name recognition advantages. Mizusawa secured the Republican nomination in the August 4 primary after a contested field, yet general-election surveys indicate limited movement in the margin since then. Forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic, underscoring structural barriers for Republicans. A late national partisan shift, major scandal, or significant turnout surprise could narrow the gap, though no such developments have materialized in the past month.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Virginia U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$22,407Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Mark Warner holds a commanding position in the 2026 Virginia Senate race, reflected in trader consensus pricing a Democratic victory near 95%. Recent polls from May and June 2026 show Warner leading Republican nominee Bert Mizusawa by 17–26 points among likely voters, consistent with the state's Democratic lean and Warner's established fundraising and name recognition advantages. Mizusawa secured the Republican nomination in the August 4 primary after a contested field, yet general-election surveys indicate limited movement in the margin since then. Forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic, underscoring structural barriers for Republicans. A late national partisan shift, major scandal, or significant turnout surprise could narrow the gap, though no such developments have materialized in the past month.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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