**Trump has exercised the pardon power extensively since returning to office in January 2025, issuing a blanket clemency grant to roughly 1,500 January 6 defendants on his first day and additional pardons or commutations for more than 1,700 individuals overall by mid-2026.** These actions bypassed the traditional Department of Justice review process under Pardon Attorney Ed Martin and “pardon czar” Alice Marie Johnson, favoring cases advanced through personal allies, donors, or family connections. Recipients have included cryptocurrency executives such as Changpeng Zhao, fraud defendants, former officials, and others with documented ties to Trump supporters or fundraising. Recent grants in September 2026 continued this pattern with drug and firearms cases alongside higher-profile names. Trader probabilities for specific individuals before 2027 track lobbying activity, restitution amounts forgiven, and proximity to administration influencers rather than standard clemency criteria. Scheduled legislative or electoral events through the end of 2026 could prompt further batches, though the volume and selection criteria remain subject to White House discretion.