Traders assign a 96% probability that China will not invade Taiwan by the end of 2026 due to the absence of detectable large-scale amphibious mobilizations or direct escalations through mid-year. U.S. intelligence assessments, including the March 2026 ODNI threat report, indicate Beijing prefers unification without force and views an amphibious operation as high-risk, especially given prohibitive economic costs and potential U.S. intervention. Recent developments include continued PLA modernization alongside leadership disruptions and diplomatic signals favoring stability, such as KMT-Xi meetings emphasizing peaceful ties. Routine coast guard patrols and military activity around Taiwan persist without crossing into invasion preparations. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include miscalculation during exercises, an unforeseen crisis triggering rapid escalation, or abrupt policy shifts by key actors.