Traders assign a 96.2% probability that China will not invade Taiwan by the end of 2026, reflecting sustained gray-zone pressure through normalized naval patrols, coast guard operations east of the island, and reduced but steady aerial incursions rather than preparations for amphibious assault. Internal PLA leadership changes from mid-2026 purges have disrupted command structures needed for complex operations, while Taiwan advances drone integration, coastal defenses, and combat readiness exercises. Recent U.S.-China diplomatic engagement, including summit discussions on arms sales, reinforces deterrence without triggering escalation. A full-scale invasion remains improbable absent major shifts such as abrupt leadership decisions, alliance realignments, or unforeseen crises that could compress warning timelines.