Israeli naval forces intercepted and boarded the Global Sumud Flotilla vessels in international waters roughly 250 nautical miles from Gaza in mid-May 2026, detaining hundreds of activists across dozens of boats and enforcing the longstanding maritime blockade. Subsequent smaller launches faced identical outcomes, with all remaining vessels halted or diverted well before the May 31 cutoff. Traders assign near-certain weight to “No” because verified reporting confirms no vessel entered Israeli territorial waters or approached Gaza by the deadline, consistent with repeated historical enforcement patterns. Late developments such as renewed diplomatic pressure or a single undetected vessel could theoretically shift outcomes, yet none materialized within the resolution window.