Turkish authorities achieved their primary objective against CHP leader Özgür Özel through a May 2026 appeals court ruling that annulled his 2023 leadership election and installed an interim replacement, followed by police eviction from party headquarters. This judicial ouster, part of broader opposition pressure including probes into alleged insults against the president, has kept formal arrest off the immediate agenda as of early June. Traders assign near-certain odds to no arrest by June 30 because parliamentary immunity remains intact and no new charges have triggered detention despite ongoing investigations. Scenarios that could still shift probabilities include rapid escalation in street protests prompting new offenses, successful moves to lift immunity ahead of the deadline, or sudden executive directives altering the current approach.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoÖzgür Özel arrested by June 30?
Özgür Özel arrested by June 30?
$26,886 Vol.
$26,886 Vol.
30 giu 2026
$26,886 Vol.
$26,886 Vol.
30 giu 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Turkish authorities achieved their primary objective against CHP leader Özgür Özel through a May 2026 appeals court ruling that annulled his 2023 leadership election and installed an interim replacement, followed by police eviction from party headquarters. This judicial ouster, part of broader opposition pressure including probes into alleged insults against the president, has kept formal arrest off the immediate agenda as of early June. Traders assign near-certain odds to no arrest by June 30 because parliamentary immunity remains intact and no new charges have triggered detention despite ongoing investigations. Scenarios that could still shift probabilities include rapid escalation in street protests prompting new offenses, successful moves to lift immunity ahead of the deadline, or sudden executive directives altering the current approach.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: May 24, 2026, 9:47 PM ET
Volume
$26,886Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
May 24, 2026, 9:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Turkish authorities achieved their primary objective against CHP leader Özgür Özel through a May 2026 appeals court ruling that annulled his 2023 leadership election and installed an interim replacement, followed by police eviction from party headquarters. This judicial ouster, part of broader opposition pressure including probes into alleged insults against the president, has kept formal arrest off the immediate agenda as of early June. Traders assign near-certain odds to no arrest by June 30 because parliamentary immunity remains intact and no new charges have triggered detention despite ongoing investigations. Scenarios that could still shift probabilities include rapid escalation in street protests prompting new offenses, successful moves to lift immunity ahead of the deadline, or sudden executive directives altering the current approach.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$26,886Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
May 24, 2026, 9:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Turkish authorities achieved their primary objective against CHP leader Özgür Özel through a May 2026 appeals court ruling that annulled his 2023 leadership election and installed an interim replacement, followed by police eviction from party headquarters. This judicial ouster, part of broader opposition pressure including probes into alleged insults against the president, has kept formal arrest off the immediate agenda as of early June. Traders assign near-certain odds to no arrest by June 30 because parliamentary immunity remains intact and no new charges have triggered detention despite ongoing investigations. Scenarios that could still shift probabilities include rapid escalation in street protests prompting new offenses, successful moves to lift immunity ahead of the deadline, or sudden executive directives altering the current approach.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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