Persistent fiscal deficits and debt exceeding $39 trillion continue to weigh on long-term credit metrics, yet Moody’s May 2025 downgrade to Aa1 with a stable outlook aligned all three major agencies below their top ratings without prompting further actions. Recent debt-ceiling legislation has reduced near-term political risks, and no agency has placed the U.S. on negative watch through mid-2026. Traders assign an 80% implied probability to no additional downgrade before 2027, reflecting the absence of acute catalysts such as renewed standoffs or sharper deterioration in debt-to-GDP trajectories that would justify another notch lower in the compressed timeframe.