Trader consensus prices an 83.5% chance of "No" recovery by April 15 for the three masterpieces—"Fish" by Renoir, "Still Life with Cherries" by Cézanne, and "Odalisque on the Terrace" by Matisse—stolen from Italy's Magnani Rocca Foundation during a swift nighttime heist on March 22-23. Italian law enforcement is analyzing surveillance video of four masked intruders who executed the break-in in under three minutes, but no arrests, leads, or physical recoveries have been reported in the intervening week. Historical recovery rates for stolen art hover at just 5-10%, reinforcing trader skepticism over a rapid resolution amid the brief two-week window and challenges of black-market trafficking.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/04/15
新規
新規
2026/04/15
On the evening of March 22-23, the following paintings were stolen from the Magnani Rocca Foundation: “Fish” by Auguste Renoir, “Still Life with Cherries” by Paul Cézanne, and “Odalisque on the Terrace” by Henri Matisse (see:https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/30/style/magnani-rocca-art-heist-italy-scli-intl).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the listed paintings are recovered by the Magnani Rocca Foundation or a relevant government or law enforcement authority by April 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying recovery requires physical control of at least one of the listed paintings by the recovering authority. Arrests or locating a painting without physical recovery will not qualify.
If a listed painting is recovered by a private individual or entity with intention of turning it over to a government authority or the Magnani Rocca Foundation, this may qualify, provided the recovery is verified by a wide consensus of credible reporting.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the Magnani Rocca Foundation and any relevant government or law enforcement authority, and a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus prices an 83.5% chance of "No" recovery by April 15 for the three masterpieces—"Fish" by Renoir, "Still Life with Cherries" by Cézanne, and "Odalisque on the Terrace" by Matisse—stolen from Italy's Magnani Rocca Foundation during a swift nighttime heist on March 22-23. Italian law enforcement is analyzing surveillance video of four masked intruders who executed the break-in in under three minutes, but no arrests, leads, or physical recoveries have been reported in the intervening week. Historical recovery rates for stolen art hover at just 5-10%, reinforcing trader skepticism over a rapid resolution amid the brief two-week window and challenges of black-market trafficking.
On the evening of March 22-23, the following paintings were stolen from the Magnani Rocca Foundation: “Fish” by Auguste Renoir, “Still Life with Cherries” by Paul Cézanne, and “Odalisque on the Terrace” by Henri Matisse (see:https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/30/style/magnani-rocca-art-heist-italy-scli-intl).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the listed paintings are recovered by the Magnani Rocca Foundation or a relevant government or law enforcement authority by April 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying recovery requires physical control of at least one of the listed paintings by the recovering authority. Arrests or locating a painting without physical recovery will not qualify.
If a listed painting is recovered by a private individual or entity with intention of turning it over to a government authority or the Magnani Rocca Foundation, this may qualify, provided the recovery is verified by a wide consensus of credible reporting.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the Magnani Rocca Foundation and any relevant government or law enforcement authority, and a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the listed paintings are recovered by the Magnani Rocca Foundation or a relevant government or law enforcement authority by April 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying recovery requires physical control of at least one of the listed paintings by the recovering authority. Arrests or locating a painting without physical recovery will not qualify.
If a listed painting is recovered by a private individual or entity with intention of turning it over to a government authority or the Magnani Rocca Foundation, this may qualify, provided the recovery is verified by a wide consensus of credible reporting.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the Magnani Rocca Foundation and any relevant government or law enforcement authority, and a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Mar 31, 2026, 5:30 PM ET
音量
$33終了日
2026/04/15マーケット開始日
Mar 31, 2026, 5:30 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On the evening of March 22-23, the following paintings were stolen from the Magnani Rocca Foundation: “Fish” by Auguste Renoir, “Still Life with Cherries” by Paul Cézanne, and “Odalisque on the Terrace” by Henri Matisse (see:https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/30/style/magnani-rocca-art-heist-italy-scli-intl).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the listed paintings are recovered by the Magnani Rocca Foundation or a relevant government or law enforcement authority by April 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying recovery requires physical control of at least one of the listed paintings by the recovering authority. Arrests or locating a painting without physical recovery will not qualify.
If a listed painting is recovered by a private individual or entity with intention of turning it over to a government authority or the Magnani Rocca Foundation, this may qualify, provided the recovery is verified by a wide consensus of credible reporting.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the Magnani Rocca Foundation and any relevant government or law enforcement authority, and a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus prices an 83.5% chance of "No" recovery by April 15 for the three masterpieces—"Fish" by Renoir, "Still Life with Cherries" by Cézanne, and "Odalisque on the Terrace" by Matisse—stolen from Italy's Magnani Rocca Foundation during a swift nighttime heist on March 22-23. Italian law enforcement is analyzing surveillance video of four masked intruders who executed the break-in in under three minutes, but no arrests, leads, or physical recoveries have been reported in the intervening week. Historical recovery rates for stolen art hover at just 5-10%, reinforcing trader skepticism over a rapid resolution amid the brief two-week window and challenges of black-market trafficking.
On the evening of March 22-23, the following paintings were stolen from the Magnani Rocca Foundation: “Fish” by Auguste Renoir, “Still Life with Cherries” by Paul Cézanne, and “Odalisque on the Terrace” by Henri Matisse (see:https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/30/style/magnani-rocca-art-heist-italy-scli-intl).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the listed paintings are recovered by the Magnani Rocca Foundation or a relevant government or law enforcement authority by April 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying recovery requires physical control of at least one of the listed paintings by the recovering authority. Arrests or locating a painting without physical recovery will not qualify.
If a listed painting is recovered by a private individual or entity with intention of turning it over to a government authority or the Magnani Rocca Foundation, this may qualify, provided the recovery is verified by a wide consensus of credible reporting.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the Magnani Rocca Foundation and any relevant government or law enforcement authority, and a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the listed paintings are recovered by the Magnani Rocca Foundation or a relevant government or law enforcement authority by April 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying recovery requires physical control of at least one of the listed paintings by the recovering authority. Arrests or locating a painting without physical recovery will not qualify.
If a listed painting is recovered by a private individual or entity with intention of turning it over to a government authority or the Magnani Rocca Foundation, this may qualify, provided the recovery is verified by a wide consensus of credible reporting.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the Magnani Rocca Foundation and any relevant government or law enforcement authority, and a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$33終了日
2026/04/15マーケット開始日
Mar 31, 2026, 5:30 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices an 83.5% chance of "No" recovery by April 15 for the three masterpieces—"Fish" by Renoir, "Still Life with Cherries" by Cézanne, and "Odalisque on the Terrace" by Matisse—stolen from Italy's Magnani Rocca Foundation during a swift nighttime heist on March 22-23. Italian law enforcement is analyzing surveillance video of four masked intruders who executed the break-in in under three minutes, but no arrests, leads, or physical recoveries have been reported in the intervening week. Historical recovery rates for stolen art hover at just 5-10%, reinforcing trader skepticism over a rapid resolution amid the brief two-week window and challenges of black-market trafficking.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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