Trader consensus on Polymarket's Elon Musk X post count market tightly clusters around the 280-319 range, with 300-319 leading at 35.5% implied probability, reflecting his signature high-volume activity averaging 35-45 posts daily amid steady cultural and tech commentary. As of April 15, trackers show 172 posts at 43% progress since April 10 noon ET, projecting totals in this zone if pace holds, consistent with the prior week's April 7-14 resolution at 280-299. Competitive dynamics pit slightly lower bins against upside risks from viral spikes, like recent Tesla AI5 chip tapeout buzz, Grok benchmark wins, SpaceX Raptor updates, and heated South Africa racism debates fueling reposts and replies. Key differentiators include weekend lulls versus event-driven surges in Tesla Semi deliveries or Starlink expansions through April 17, underscoring X's role as Musk's primary megaphone for real-time announcements and public sentiment.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日300〜319 35%
280～299 26.8%
320～339 18.3%
340～359 8.6%
$8,817,276 Vol.
$8,817,276 Vol.
240～259
<1%
260〜279
8%
280～299
27%
300〜319
35%
320～339
18%
340～359
9%
360～379
3%
380〜399
1%
400～419
1%
420～439
<1%
440～459
<1%
460～479
<1%
480〜499
<1%
500～519
<1%
520〜539
<1%
540～559
<1%
560～579
<1%
580以上
<1%
300〜319 35%
280～299 26.8%
320～339 18.3%
340～359 8.6%
$8,817,276 Vol.
$8,817,276 Vol.
240～259
<1%
260〜279
8%
280～299
27%
300〜319
35%
320～339
18%
340～359
9%
360～379
3%
380〜399
1%
400～419
1%
420～439
<1%
440～459
<1%
460～479
<1%
480〜499
<1%
500～519
<1%
520〜539
<1%
540～559
<1%
560～579
<1%
580以上
<1%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
マーケット開始日： Apr 7, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket's Elon Musk X post count market tightly clusters around the 280-319 range, with 300-319 leading at 35.5% implied probability, reflecting his signature high-volume activity averaging 35-45 posts daily amid steady cultural and tech commentary. As of April 15, trackers show 172 posts at 43% progress since April 10 noon ET, projecting totals in this zone if pace holds, consistent with the prior week's April 7-14 resolution at 280-299. Competitive dynamics pit slightly lower bins against upside risks from viral spikes, like recent Tesla AI5 chip tapeout buzz, Grok benchmark wins, SpaceX Raptor updates, and heated South Africa racism debates fueling reposts and replies. Key differentiators include weekend lulls versus event-driven surges in Tesla Semi deliveries or Starlink expansions through April 17, underscoring X's role as Musk's primary megaphone for real-time announcements and public sentiment.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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