Trader consensus on Polymarket centers on Elon Musk posting 240-279 times on X from April 14-21, with 240-259 leading at 26.5% implied probability, directly anchored by the past two weeks' resolved markets—240-259 for April 3-10 and 260-279 for March 31-April 7, both hitting 100% certainty. This reflects his reliable 30-37 posts per day amid steady buzz around xAI model releases and SpaceX Starship progress, sustaining high social media engagement and viral pop culture moments. Closely matched frontrunners (260-279 at 20.5%, 220-239 at 17.5%) highlight competitive dynamics, where upside risks from Tesla Q1 earnings chatter or political commentary could push toward 280+, while lulls in major announcements might pull below 240; daily trackers remain pivotal swing factors.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日240～259 27%
260〜279 21%
220〜239 18%
280～299 15%
$340,064 Vol.
$340,064 Vol.
20未満
<1%
20〜39
<1%
40～59
<1%
60〜79
<1%
80～99
<1%
100〜119
<1%
120〜139
<1%
140〜159
<1%
160〜179
1%
180〜199
2%
200～219
6%
220〜239
18%
240～259
27%
260〜279
21%
280～299
15%
300〜319
6%
320〜339
3%
340～359
2%
360〜379
1%
380～399
1%
400～419
1%
420～439
1%
440〜459
1%
460～479
<1%
480～499
<1%
500〜519
<1%
520～539
<1%
540～559
<1%
560〜579
<1%
580以上
<1%
240～259 27%
260〜279 21%
220〜239 18%
280～299 15%
$340,064 Vol.
$340,064 Vol.
20未満
<1%
20〜39
<1%
40～59
<1%
60〜79
<1%
80～99
<1%
100〜119
<1%
120〜139
<1%
140〜159
<1%
160〜179
1%
180〜199
2%
200～219
6%
220〜239
18%
240～259
27%
260〜279
21%
280～299
15%
300〜319
6%
320〜339
3%
340～359
2%
360〜379
1%
380～399
1%
400～419
1%
420～439
1%
440〜459
1%
460～479
<1%
480～499
<1%
500〜519
<1%
520～539
<1%
540～559
<1%
560〜579
<1%
580以上
<1%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
マーケット開始日： Apr 11, 2026, 12:01 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket centers on Elon Musk posting 240-279 times on X from April 14-21, with 240-259 leading at 26.5% implied probability, directly anchored by the past two weeks' resolved markets—240-259 for April 3-10 and 260-279 for March 31-April 7, both hitting 100% certainty. This reflects his reliable 30-37 posts per day amid steady buzz around xAI model releases and SpaceX Starship progress, sustaining high social media engagement and viral pop culture moments. Closely matched frontrunners (260-279 at 20.5%, 220-239 at 17.5%) highlight competitive dynamics, where upside risks from Tesla Q1 earnings chatter or political commentary could push toward 280+, while lulls in major announcements might pull below 240; daily trackers remain pivotal swing factors.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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