Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters tightly around 240-299 posts for Elon Musk's X activity from April 17-24, with 260-279 leading at 16.5% implied probability, reflecting his recent pace of 35-41 daily posts seen in the ongoing April 10-17 market (205 posts through 71% elapsed). This stems from resolved prior weeks like April 13-15 at 33 total and early April dailies in the 10-19 range, tempered by spikes during viral moments such as Starship V3 static fire success, Grok's top healthcare benchmark, and commentary on South African anti-White rhetoric and California fraud probes. Key swing factors include upcoming SpaceX tests or political flare-ups, which historically amplify his cultural commentary output, keeping mid-200s bins neck-and-neck amid high unpredictability in his real-time engagement.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日260～279 17%
240～259 16%
280〜299 15%
300〜319 14%
$557,123 Vol.
$557,123 Vol.
19未満
<1%
20～39
<1%
40～59
<1%
60～79
<1%
80〜99
<1%
100～119
<1%
120〜139
<1%
140〜159
1%
160～179
2%
180～199
4%
200〜219
8%
220〜239
10%
240～259
16%
260～279
17%
280〜299
15%
300〜319
14%
320～339
9%
340〜359
5%
360～379
4%
380〜399
2%
400～419
2%
420〜439
1%
440〜459
1%
460〜479
1%
480〜499
1%
500～519
<1%
520〜539
<1%
540～559
<1%
560〜579
1%
580件以上
<1%
260～279 17%
240～259 16%
280〜299 15%
300〜319 14%
$557,123 Vol.
$557,123 Vol.
19未満
<1%
20～39
<1%
40～59
<1%
60～79
<1%
80〜99
<1%
100～119
<1%
120〜139
<1%
140〜159
1%
160～179
2%
180～199
4%
200〜219
8%
220〜239
10%
240～259
16%
260～279
17%
280〜299
15%
300〜319
14%
320～339
9%
340〜359
5%
360～379
4%
380〜399
2%
400～419
2%
420〜439
1%
440〜459
1%
460〜479
1%
480〜499
1%
500～519
<1%
520〜539
<1%
540～559
<1%
560〜579
1%
580件以上
<1%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
マーケット開始日： Apr 14, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters tightly around 240-299 posts for Elon Musk's X activity from April 17-24, with 260-279 leading at 16.5% implied probability, reflecting his recent pace of 35-41 daily posts seen in the ongoing April 10-17 market (205 posts through 71% elapsed). This stems from resolved prior weeks like April 13-15 at 33 total and early April dailies in the 10-19 range, tempered by spikes during viral moments such as Starship V3 static fire success, Grok's top healthcare benchmark, and commentary on South African anti-White rhetoric and California fraud probes. Key swing factors include upcoming SpaceX tests or political flare-ups, which historically amplify his cultural commentary output, keeping mid-200s bins neck-and-neck amid high unpredictability in his real-time engagement.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問