President Trump's recent social media attacks on Pope Leo XIV—labeling the pontiff "weak on crime" and "terrible for foreign policy" over opposition to the U.S.-led war in Iran—have fueled debate, yet traders price "No" at 73% implied probability, viewing these as policy critiques rather than personal disparagement. Fact-checks debunked Trump's claim that the pope supports Iranian nuclear weapons, while Pope Leo responded calmly aboard a papal flight, expressing "no fear." Backlash from Catholic communities, VP Vance urging the pope to prioritize morality over U.S. policy, and White House restraint signal de-escalation with two weeks until April 30 resolution. The first U.S.-born pope's nearly year-long pontificate lacks prior direct clashes, reinforcing trader consensus on restraint.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/04/30
新規
新規
2026/04/30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks Pope Leo XIV personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This includes calling the Pope weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the Pope's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.
A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.
Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's recent social media attacks on Pope Leo XIV—labeling the pontiff "weak on crime" and "terrible for foreign policy" over opposition to the U.S.-led war in Iran—have fueled debate, yet traders price "No" at 73% implied probability, viewing these as policy critiques rather than personal disparagement. Fact-checks debunked Trump's claim that the pope supports Iranian nuclear weapons, while Pope Leo responded calmly aboard a papal flight, expressing "no fear." Backlash from Catholic communities, VP Vance urging the pope to prioritize morality over U.S. policy, and White House restraint signal de-escalation with two weeks until April 30 resolution. The first U.S.-born pope's nearly year-long pontificate lacks prior direct clashes, reinforcing trader consensus on restraint.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks Pope Leo XIV personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This includes calling the Pope weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the Pope's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.
A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.
Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This includes calling the Pope weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the Pope's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.
A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.
Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Apr 13, 2026, 6:35 PM ET
音量
$4,499終了日
2026/04/30マーケット開始日
Apr 13, 2026, 6:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks Pope Leo XIV personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This includes calling the Pope weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the Pope's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.
A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.
Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's recent social media attacks on Pope Leo XIV—labeling the pontiff "weak on crime" and "terrible for foreign policy" over opposition to the U.S.-led war in Iran—have fueled debate, yet traders price "No" at 73% implied probability, viewing these as policy critiques rather than personal disparagement. Fact-checks debunked Trump's claim that the pope supports Iranian nuclear weapons, while Pope Leo responded calmly aboard a papal flight, expressing "no fear." Backlash from Catholic communities, VP Vance urging the pope to prioritize morality over U.S. policy, and White House restraint signal de-escalation with two weeks until April 30 resolution. The first U.S.-born pope's nearly year-long pontificate lacks prior direct clashes, reinforcing trader consensus on restraint.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks Pope Leo XIV personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This includes calling the Pope weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the Pope's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.
A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.
Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This includes calling the Pope weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the Pope's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.
A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.
Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$4,499終了日
2026/04/30マーケット開始日
Apr 13, 2026, 6:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump's recent social media attacks on Pope Leo XIV—labeling the pontiff "weak on crime" and "terrible for foreign policy" over opposition to the U.S.-led war in Iran—have fueled debate, yet traders price "No" at 73% implied probability, viewing these as policy critiques rather than personal disparagement. Fact-checks debunked Trump's claim that the pope supports Iranian nuclear weapons, while Pope Leo responded calmly aboard a papal flight, expressing "no fear." Backlash from Catholic communities, VP Vance urging the pope to prioritize morality over U.S. policy, and White House restraint signal de-escalation with two weeks until April 30 resolution. The first U.S.-born pope's nearly year-long pontificate lacks prior direct clashes, reinforcing trader consensus on restraint.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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