Erdoğan’s current presidential term runs through 2028, with senior ruling-party figures and his chief adviser confirming in mid-September 2026 that he will seek another candidacy via a parliamentary vote to hold elections around April 16, 2028. This mechanism under Article 116 would satisfy constitutional term rules while aligning with the ruling AKP-MHP alliance’s parliamentary strength and stated preference against an earlier vote. No snap-election threshold has been reached, and recent public appearances plus policy announcements show the incumbent continuing routine governance. Traders therefore assign overwhelming probability that he remains in office through December 2026. Only an unforeseen health event or abrupt institutional rupture before year-end could alter that consensus.