Congressional leaders have advanced bipartisan continuing resolutions to extend current FY2026 funding levels into December 2026, reducing the immediate risk of an appropriations lapse when FY2027 begins October 1. The House passed a clean CR through December 4, while Senate Appropriations leaders reached a bipartisan agreement extending funding through December 11, both enacted ahead of the August recess and midterm elections. These measures follow earlier full-year appropriations progress on select bills and reflect efforts to provide temporary stability amid narrow majorities. Traders assign an 88% implied probability to “No” on a lapse, consistent with the pattern of preemptive stopgap legislation that has historically prevented funding gaps at fiscal year starts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日14% 確率
新規
新規
2026/10/01
14% 確率
新規
新規
2026/10/01
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a partial or full United States federal government lapse in appropriations occurs on October 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress and the President fail to enact legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse.
A lapse of any duration affecting any portion of the United States federal government will qualify, regardless of whether it results in any operational impact. A subsequent government shutdown is not necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including from Congress.gov; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Congressional leaders have advanced bipartisan continuing resolutions to extend current FY2026 funding levels into December 2026, reducing the immediate risk of an appropriations lapse when FY2027 begins October 1. The House passed a clean CR through December 4, while Senate Appropriations leaders reached a bipartisan agreement extending funding through December 11, both enacted ahead of the August recess and midterm elections. These measures follow earlier full-year appropriations progress on select bills and reflect efforts to provide temporary stability amid narrow majorities. Traders assign an 88% implied probability to “No” on a lapse, consistent with the pattern of preemptive stopgap legislation that has historically prevented funding gaps at fiscal year starts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a partial or full United States federal government lapse in appropriations occurs on October 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress and the President fail to enact legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse.
A lapse of any duration affecting any portion of the United States federal government will qualify, regardless of whether it results in any operational impact. A subsequent government shutdown is not necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including from Congress.gov; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress and the President fail to enact legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse.
A lapse of any duration affecting any portion of the United States federal government will qualify, regardless of whether it results in any operational impact. A subsequent government shutdown is not necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including from Congress.gov; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Aug 5, 2026, 11:30 AM ET
音量
$1,340終了日
2026/10/01マーケット開始日
Aug 5, 2026, 11:30 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a partial or full United States federal government lapse in appropriations occurs on October 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress and the President fail to enact legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse.
A lapse of any duration affecting any portion of the United States federal government will qualify, regardless of whether it results in any operational impact. A subsequent government shutdown is not necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including from Congress.gov; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Congressional leaders have advanced bipartisan continuing resolutions to extend current FY2026 funding levels into December 2026, reducing the immediate risk of an appropriations lapse when FY2027 begins October 1. The House passed a clean CR through December 4, while Senate Appropriations leaders reached a bipartisan agreement extending funding through December 11, both enacted ahead of the August recess and midterm elections. These measures follow earlier full-year appropriations progress on select bills and reflect efforts to provide temporary stability amid narrow majorities. Traders assign an 88% implied probability to “No” on a lapse, consistent with the pattern of preemptive stopgap legislation that has historically prevented funding gaps at fiscal year starts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a partial or full United States federal government lapse in appropriations occurs on October 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress and the President fail to enact legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse.
A lapse of any duration affecting any portion of the United States federal government will qualify, regardless of whether it results in any operational impact. A subsequent government shutdown is not necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including from Congress.gov; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress and the President fail to enact legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse.
A lapse of any duration affecting any portion of the United States federal government will qualify, regardless of whether it results in any operational impact. A subsequent government shutdown is not necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including from Congress.gov; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$1,340終了日
2026/10/01マーケット開始日
Aug 5, 2026, 11:30 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Congressional leaders have advanced bipartisan continuing resolutions to extend current FY2026 funding levels into December 2026, reducing the immediate risk of an appropriations lapse when FY2027 begins October 1. The House passed a clean CR through December 4, while Senate Appropriations leaders reached a bipartisan agreement extending funding through December 11, both enacted ahead of the August recess and midterm elections. These measures follow earlier full-year appropriations progress on select bills and reflect efforts to provide temporary stability amid narrow majorities. Traders assign an 88% implied probability to “No” on a lapse, consistent with the pattern of preemptive stopgap legislation that has historically prevented funding gaps at fiscal year starts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問