Recent Hong Kong Observatory and global model guidance point to peak temperatures of 30–31°C on August 5 as the most probable outcomes, driven by persistent southwesterly monsoon flow, widespread cloud cover, and scattered showers that limit daytime heating. Climatologically, early-August highs average near 32°C, but current ensemble spreads show modest cooling from expected rainfall and high humidity, keeping extremes above 33°C or below 29°C less likely. Traders are weighting these near-term forecast runs heavily, with resolution hinging on the official daily maximum recorded at the Hong Kong Observatory headquarters. Updated model cycles over the next 48 hours will likely refine probabilities ahead of the event.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日8月5日の香港の最高気温は?
31°C 33%
30°C 28%
32°C 22%
33°C 9%
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
3%
29°C
7%
30°C
28%
31°C
33%
32°C
22%
33°C
9%
34°C
4%
35°C
2%
36°C
1%
37°C or higher
<1%
31°C 33%
30°C 28%
32°C 22%
33°C 9%
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
3%
29°C
7%
30°C
28%
31°C
33%
32°C
22%
33°C
9%
34°C
4%
35°C
2%
36°C
1%
37°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: Aug 3, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Hong Kong Observatory and global model guidance point to peak temperatures of 30–31°C on August 5 as the most probable outcomes, driven by persistent southwesterly monsoon flow, widespread cloud cover, and scattered showers that limit daytime heating. Climatologically, early-August highs average near 32°C, but current ensemble spreads show modest cooling from expected rainfall and high humidity, keeping extremes above 33°C or below 29°C less likely. Traders are weighting these near-term forecast runs heavily, with resolution hinging on the official daily maximum recorded at the Hong Kong Observatory headquarters. Updated model cycles over the next 48 hours will likely refine probabilities ahead of the event.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日

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