Recent numerical weather prediction models, including ECMWF and GFS runs, point to stable high-pressure conditions over the Iberian Peninsula driving clear skies, light winds, and daytime highs near 32°C in Madrid on September 13, consistent with the market's leading 57% implied probability for that outcome. This setup favors modest warming above the 1991–2020 climatological average high of 27.1°C through subsidence and strong solar insolation, with minimal cloud cover or precipitation risk. Latest short-range guidance shows temperatures potentially reaching 33°C if afternoon mixing strengthens slightly, aligning with the secondary 31% odds, while cooler 31°C scenarios remain possible under minor model variability. Traders are closely watching updated AEMET and ensemble forecasts ahead of resolution, as small shifts in steering patterns or boundary-layer conditions could adjust the peak within the narrow 31–33°C range.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日9月13日のマドリードの最高気温は？
9月13日のマドリードの最高気温は？
32°C 52%
33℃ 34%
31°C 16.5%
30℃ 5%
新規
新規
2026/09/13
26℃以下
<1%
27℃
<1%
28℃
2%
29℃
1%
30℃
5%
31°C
16%
32°C
52%
33℃
34%
34°C
5%
35℃
5%
36℃以上
1%
32°C 52%
33℃ 34%
31°C 16.5%
30℃ 5%
新規
新規
2026/09/13
26℃以下
$228 Vol.
<1%
27℃
$173 Vol.
<1%
28℃
$0 Vol.
2%
29℃
$0 Vol.
1%
30℃
$0 Vol.
5%
31°C
$241 Vol.
16%
32°C
$616 Vol.
52%
33℃
$640 Vol.
34%
34°C
$187 Vol.
5%
35℃
$5 Vol.
5%
36℃以上
$221 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction models, including ECMWF and GFS runs, point to stable high-pressure conditions over the Iberian Peninsula driving clear skies, light winds, and daytime highs near 32°C in Madrid on September 13, consistent with the market's leading 57% implied probability for that outcome. This setup favors modest warming above the 1991–2020 climatological average high of 27.1°C through subsidence and strong solar insolation, with minimal cloud cover or precipitation risk. Latest short-range guidance shows temperatures potentially reaching 33°C if afternoon mixing strengthens slightly, aligning with the secondary 31% odds, while cooler 31°C scenarios remain possible under minor model variability. Traders are closely watching updated AEMET and ensemble forecasts ahead of resolution, as small shifts in steering patterns or boundary-layer conditions could adjust the peak within the narrow 31–33°C range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Sep 11, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
音量
$2,310終了日
2026/09/13マーケット開始日
Sep 11, 2026, 12:56 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction models, including ECMWF and GFS runs, point to stable high-pressure conditions over the Iberian Peninsula driving clear skies, light winds, and daytime highs near 32°C in Madrid on September 13, consistent with the market's leading 57% implied probability for that outcome. This setup favors modest warming above the 1991–2020 climatological average high of 27.1°C through subsidence and strong solar insolation, with minimal cloud cover or precipitation risk. Latest short-range guidance shows temperatures potentially reaching 33°C if afternoon mixing strengthens slightly, aligning with the secondary 31% odds, while cooler 31°C scenarios remain possible under minor model variability. Traders are closely watching updated AEMET and ensemble forecasts ahead of resolution, as small shifts in steering patterns or boundary-layer conditions could adjust the peak within the narrow 31–33°C range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
音量
$2,310終了日
2026/09/13マーケット開始日
Sep 11, 2026, 12:56 AM ETRecent numerical weather prediction models, including ECMWF and GFS runs, point to stable high-pressure conditions over the Iberian Peninsula driving clear skies, light winds, and daytime highs near 32°C in Madrid on September 13, consistent with the market's leading 57% implied probability for that outcome. This setup favors modest warming above the 1991–2020 climatological average high of 27.1°C through subsidence and strong solar insolation, with minimal cloud cover or precipitation risk. Latest short-range guidance shows temperatures potentially reaching 33°C if afternoon mixing strengthens slightly, aligning with the secondary 31% odds, while cooler 31°C scenarios remain possible under minor model variability. Traders are closely watching updated AEMET and ensemble forecasts ahead of resolution, as small shifts in steering patterns or boundary-layer conditions could adjust the peak within the narrow 31–33°C range.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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