Persistent rain and northerly flow are suppressing Tokyo's daytime maximum on September 11, with official forecasts and model consensus centering on 20–22°C amid heavy cloud cover and precipitation totals exceeding 10 mm. Reduced solar insolation from stratiform clouds, combined with evaporative cooling from ongoing showers, limits surface heating relative to typical mid-September climatology near 27°C. Recent early-month rainfall events have further cooled the boundary layer, shifting the distribution toward cooler outcomes. Ensemble spreads remain narrow given the proximity of resolution, with only modest upside potential if breaks in cloud cover develop. Traders assign roughly 86% implied probability to the 20–22°C cluster, reflecting high confidence in stable synoptic conditions through the overnight period.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日9月11日の東京の最高気温は？
9月11日の東京の最高気温は？
21℃ 35%
22℃ 29%
20℃ 25%
23℃ 7%
新規
新規
2026/09/11
15°C以下
<1%
16℃
<1%
17°C
<1%
18℃
2%
19℃
5%
20℃
25%
21℃
35%
22℃
29%
23℃
7%
24℃
3%
25℃以上
1%
21℃ 35%
22℃ 29%
20℃ 25%
23℃ 7%
新規
新規
2026/09/11
15°C以下
$1,279 Vol.
<1%
16℃
$549 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$214 Vol.
<1%
18℃
$11 Vol.
2%
19℃
$269 Vol.
5%
20℃
$1,554 Vol.
25%
21℃
$862 Vol.
35%
22℃
$748 Vol.
29%
23℃
$300 Vol.
7%
24℃
$230 Vol.
3%
25℃以上
$410 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent rain and northerly flow are suppressing Tokyo's daytime maximum on September 11, with official forecasts and model consensus centering on 20–22°C amid heavy cloud cover and precipitation totals exceeding 10 mm. Reduced solar insolation from stratiform clouds, combined with evaporative cooling from ongoing showers, limits surface heating relative to typical mid-September climatology near 27°C. Recent early-month rainfall events have further cooled the boundary layer, shifting the distribution toward cooler outcomes. Ensemble spreads remain narrow given the proximity of resolution, with only modest upside potential if breaks in cloud cover develop. Traders assign roughly 86% implied probability to the 20–22°C cluster, reflecting high confidence in stable synoptic conditions through the overnight period.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Sep 9, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
音量
$6,426終了日
2026/09/11マーケット開始日
Sep 9, 2026, 12:56 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent rain and northerly flow are suppressing Tokyo's daytime maximum on September 11, with official forecasts and model consensus centering on 20–22°C amid heavy cloud cover and precipitation totals exceeding 10 mm. Reduced solar insolation from stratiform clouds, combined with evaporative cooling from ongoing showers, limits surface heating relative to typical mid-September climatology near 27°C. Recent early-month rainfall events have further cooled the boundary layer, shifting the distribution toward cooler outcomes. Ensemble spreads remain narrow given the proximity of resolution, with only modest upside potential if breaks in cloud cover develop. Traders assign roughly 86% implied probability to the 20–22°C cluster, reflecting high confidence in stable synoptic conditions through the overnight period.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
音量
$6,426終了日
2026/09/11マーケット開始日
Sep 9, 2026, 12:56 AM ETPersistent rain and northerly flow are suppressing Tokyo's daytime maximum on September 11, with official forecasts and model consensus centering on 20–22°C amid heavy cloud cover and precipitation totals exceeding 10 mm. Reduced solar insolation from stratiform clouds, combined with evaporative cooling from ongoing showers, limits surface heating relative to typical mid-September climatology near 27°C. Recent early-month rainfall events have further cooled the boundary layer, shifting the distribution toward cooler outcomes. Ensemble spreads remain narrow given the proximity of resolution, with only modest upside potential if breaks in cloud cover develop. Traders assign roughly 86% implied probability to the 20–22°C cluster, reflecting high confidence in stable synoptic conditions through the overnight period.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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