Recent forecast runs from Météo-France and European models show Paris under a building high-pressure ridge with light winds and clear skies favoring daytime heating on August 5. Ensemble spreads place maximum temperatures most often between 27–29 °C, consistent with the market’s tight clustering around those outcomes, while drier continental air and reduced cloud cover could push readings to 30 °C if subsidence strengthens. Urban heat-island effects and boundary-layer mixing add further uncertainty, with model disagreement on exact timing of any weak front or Atlantic moisture return. Updated 12–48 h guidance and surface observations will refine the final peak before resolution.