Recent short-range forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and global models (ECMWF, GFS) anchor trader sentiment around a 29–31°C peak for Incheon on August 27, with 30°C leading at 36.5% implied probability. Late-August climatology features seasonal cooling from early-month heatwave conditions, with typical diurnal maxima supported by moderate insolation, light westerly winds, and limited cloud cover or precipitation. Ensemble spreads remain narrow within 48 hours of the date, concentrating probability on adjacent brackets while the 32°C+ tail stays under 5% absent strong high-pressure amplification. Updated KMA guidance and next model cycles will determine whether subtle shifts in boundary-layer moisture or steering patterns push the observed high across the 30–31°C threshold.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日8月27日のソウル(仁川)の最高気温は?
30°C 37%
29°C 29%
31°C 20%
28°C 11%
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
2%
28°C
11%
29°C
29%
30°C
37%
31°C
20%
32°C
5%
33°C or higher
1%
30°C 37%
29°C 29%
31°C 20%
28°C 11%
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
2%
28°C
11%
29°C
29%
30°C
37%
31°C
20%
32°C
5%
33°C or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rksi
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日: Aug 25, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rksi
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent short-range forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and global models (ECMWF, GFS) anchor trader sentiment around a 29–31°C peak for Incheon on August 27, with 30°C leading at 36.5% implied probability. Late-August climatology features seasonal cooling from early-month heatwave conditions, with typical diurnal maxima supported by moderate insolation, light westerly winds, and limited cloud cover or precipitation. Ensemble spreads remain narrow within 48 hours of the date, concentrating probability on adjacent brackets while the 32°C+ tail stays under 5% absent strong high-pressure amplification. Updated KMA guidance and next model cycles will determine whether subtle shifts in boundary-layer moisture or steering patterns push the observed high across the 30–31°C threshold.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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