Latest official forecasts from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration point to a maximum of 31–32°C in Shenzhen on August 27, driven by a persistent southerly airstream, widespread cloud cover, and scattered thunderstorms that limit daytime heating. This aligns with late-August climatology of roughly 32°C highs amid the East Asian monsoon, though ongoing rain from regional systems such as Tropical Storm Narra is expected to cap peaks slightly below seasonal norms. Model consensus favors 31°C as the most likely outcome, with traders assigning it the highest implied probability (35.5%) while assigning meaningful weight to nearby values of 30°C and 32°C given typical forecast spread and resolution criteria based on official station readings.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日8月27日の深センの最高気温は?
31°C 36%
30°C 19%
32°C 19%
33°C 17%
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
7%
29°C
10%
30°C
19%
31°C
36%
32°C
19%
33°C
17%
34°C
6%
35°C or higher
<1%
31°C 36%
30°C 19%
32°C 19%
33°C 17%
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
7%
29°C
10%
30°C
19%
31°C
36%
32°C
19%
33°C
17%
34°C
6%
35°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日: Aug 25, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Latest official forecasts from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration point to a maximum of 31–32°C in Shenzhen on August 27, driven by a persistent southerly airstream, widespread cloud cover, and scattered thunderstorms that limit daytime heating. This aligns with late-August climatology of roughly 32°C highs amid the East Asian monsoon, though ongoing rain from regional systems such as Tropical Storm Narra is expected to cap peaks slightly below seasonal norms. Model consensus favors 31°C as the most likely outcome, with traders assigning it the highest implied probability (35.5%) while assigning meaningful weight to nearby values of 30°C and 32°C given typical forecast spread and resolution criteria based on official station readings.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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