Illinois's 4th congressional district remains a strongly Democratic seat centered in southwest Chicago neighborhoods and nearby suburbs such as Cicero and Berwyn. Incumbent Jesús “Chuy” García announced his retirement after the 2024 cycle, paving the way for his chief of staff Patty Garcia to secure the Democratic nomination unopposed in the March 2026 primary. The district’s consistent partisan lean, evidenced by García’s 67.5 percent victory in the prior general election, underpins trader consensus that the Democratic nominee will prevail in November. Limited Republican primary activity and modest fundraising have produced no credible challenge, keeping implied probabilities for the Republican nominee near single digits. Late developments such as an unforeseen scandal, health issue affecting the Democratic candidate, or an unusually large national Republican wave could still alter the outcome, though historical voting patterns and the absence of competitive opposition make such shifts unlikely.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$52,331 Vol.
$52,331 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
95%
共和党
3%
$52,331 Vol.
$52,331 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$37,684 Vol.
95%
共和党
$14,647 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Illinois's 4th congressional district remains a strongly Democratic seat centered in southwest Chicago neighborhoods and nearby suburbs such as Cicero and Berwyn. Incumbent Jesús “Chuy” García announced his retirement after the 2024 cycle, paving the way for his chief of staff Patty Garcia to secure the Democratic nomination unopposed in the March 2026 primary. The district’s consistent partisan lean, evidenced by García’s 67.5 percent victory in the prior general election, underpins trader consensus that the Democratic nominee will prevail in November. Limited Republican primary activity and modest fundraising have produced no credible challenge, keeping implied probabilities for the Republican nominee near single digits. Late developments such as an unforeseen scandal, health issue affecting the Democratic candidate, or an unusually large national Republican wave could still alter the outcome, though historical voting patterns and the absence of competitive opposition make such shifts unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
音量
$52,331終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Illinois's 4th congressional district remains a strongly Democratic seat centered in southwest Chicago neighborhoods and nearby suburbs such as Cicero and Berwyn. Incumbent Jesús “Chuy” García announced his retirement after the 2024 cycle, paving the way for his chief of staff Patty Garcia to secure the Democratic nomination unopposed in the March 2026 primary. The district’s consistent partisan lean, evidenced by García’s 67.5 percent victory in the prior general election, underpins trader consensus that the Democratic nominee will prevail in November. Limited Republican primary activity and modest fundraising have produced no credible challenge, keeping implied probabilities for the Republican nominee near single digits. Late developments such as an unforeseen scandal, health issue affecting the Democratic candidate, or an unusually large national Republican wave could still alter the outcome, though historical voting patterns and the absence of competitive opposition make such shifts unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$52,331終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Illinois's 4th congressional district remains a strongly Democratic seat centered in southwest Chicago neighborhoods and nearby suburbs such as Cicero and Berwyn. Incumbent Jesús “Chuy” García announced his retirement after the 2024 cycle, paving the way for his chief of staff Patty Garcia to secure the Democratic nomination unopposed in the March 2026 primary. The district’s consistent partisan lean, evidenced by García’s 67.5 percent victory in the prior general election, underpins trader consensus that the Democratic nominee will prevail in November. Limited Republican primary activity and modest fundraising have produced no credible challenge, keeping implied probabilities for the Republican nominee near single digits. Late developments such as an unforeseen scandal, health issue affecting the Democratic candidate, or an unusually large national Republican wave could still alter the outcome, though historical voting patterns and the absence of competitive opposition make such shifts unlikely.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問