Patty Garcia maintains a commanding lead in the Illinois 4th Congressional District race due to the seat's strong Democratic lean, reflected in its Partisan Voter Index and consistent ratings as Solid or Safe Democratic by multiple forecasters. Following incumbent Jesús "Chuy" García's withdrawal after the primary filing deadline, Garcia secured the Democratic nomination unopposed in the March primary as his former chief of staff. Republican nominee Lupe Castillo advanced without opposition but faces structural barriers in a district where Democrats have historically prevailed by wide margins. Independent candidates who sought ballot access were disqualified earlier in the cycle, further consolidating support behind the major-party frontrunner. Trader consensus aligns with these factors, though late developments such as candidate health issues or unexpected turnout shifts in the final weeks before the November 3 general election could still influence outcomes in this open-seat contest.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$61,640 Vol.
$61,640 Vol.
2026/11/02
パティ・ガルシア（民主党）
96%
ルーペ・カスティーヨ（共和党）
4%
$61,640 Vol.
$61,640 Vol.
2026/11/02
パティ・ガルシア（民主党）
$45,541 Vol.
96%
ルーペ・カスティーヨ（共和党）
$16,099 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Patty Garcia maintains a commanding lead in the Illinois 4th Congressional District race due to the seat's strong Democratic lean, reflected in its Partisan Voter Index and consistent ratings as Solid or Safe Democratic by multiple forecasters. Following incumbent Jesús "Chuy" García's withdrawal after the primary filing deadline, Garcia secured the Democratic nomination unopposed in the March primary as his former chief of staff. Republican nominee Lupe Castillo advanced without opposition but faces structural barriers in a district where Democrats have historically prevailed by wide margins. Independent candidates who sought ballot access were disqualified earlier in the cycle, further consolidating support behind the major-party frontrunner. Trader consensus aligns with these factors, though late developments such as candidate health issues or unexpected turnout shifts in the final weeks before the November 3 general election could still influence outcomes in this open-seat contest.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
音量
$61,640終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Patty Garcia maintains a commanding lead in the Illinois 4th Congressional District race due to the seat's strong Democratic lean, reflected in its Partisan Voter Index and consistent ratings as Solid or Safe Democratic by multiple forecasters. Following incumbent Jesús "Chuy" García's withdrawal after the primary filing deadline, Garcia secured the Democratic nomination unopposed in the March primary as his former chief of staff. Republican nominee Lupe Castillo advanced without opposition but faces structural barriers in a district where Democrats have historically prevailed by wide margins. Independent candidates who sought ballot access were disqualified earlier in the cycle, further consolidating support behind the major-party frontrunner. Trader consensus aligns with these factors, though late developments such as candidate health issues or unexpected turnout shifts in the final weeks before the November 3 general election could still influence outcomes in this open-seat contest.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$61,640終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...Patty Garcia maintains a commanding lead in the Illinois 4th Congressional District race due to the seat's strong Democratic lean, reflected in its Partisan Voter Index and consistent ratings as Solid or Safe Democratic by multiple forecasters. Following incumbent Jesús "Chuy" García's withdrawal after the primary filing deadline, Garcia secured the Democratic nomination unopposed in the March primary as his former chief of staff. Republican nominee Lupe Castillo advanced without opposition but faces structural barriers in a district where Democrats have historically prevailed by wide margins. Independent candidates who sought ballot access were disqualified earlier in the cycle, further consolidating support behind the major-party frontrunner. Trader consensus aligns with these factors, though late developments such as candidate health issues or unexpected turnout shifts in the final weeks before the November 3 general election could still influence outcomes in this open-seat contest.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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