The Illinois 4th congressional district remains a strongly Democratic seat centered in southwest Chicago and nearby suburbs such as Cicero and Berwyn, where the party has long held commanding margins in federal elections. Incumbent Jesús “Chuy” García’s retirement opened the race, yet Democratic nominee Patty Garcia secured a dominant primary victory while Republican nominee Lupe Castillo and minor candidates face structural disadvantages in voter registration and fundraising. Recent ballot rulings removing independent challengers further consolidated the field ahead of the November 2026 general election. Trader consensus at 93.5% for Democrats reflects these entrenched partisan patterns and limited opposition resources. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen scandal affecting the Democratic candidate or a broad national political realignment altering turnout dynamics in the district.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$55,591 Vol.
$55,591 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
94%
共和党
6%
$55,591 Vol.
$55,591 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$39,979 Vol.
94%
共和党
$15,612 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Illinois 4th congressional district remains a strongly Democratic seat centered in southwest Chicago and nearby suburbs such as Cicero and Berwyn, where the party has long held commanding margins in federal elections. Incumbent Jesús “Chuy” García’s retirement opened the race, yet Democratic nominee Patty Garcia secured a dominant primary victory while Republican nominee Lupe Castillo and minor candidates face structural disadvantages in voter registration and fundraising. Recent ballot rulings removing independent challengers further consolidated the field ahead of the November 2026 general election. Trader consensus at 93.5% for Democrats reflects these entrenched partisan patterns and limited opposition resources. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen scandal affecting the Democratic candidate or a broad national political realignment altering turnout dynamics in the district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
音量
$55,591終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Illinois 4th congressional district remains a strongly Democratic seat centered in southwest Chicago and nearby suburbs such as Cicero and Berwyn, where the party has long held commanding margins in federal elections. Incumbent Jesús “Chuy” García’s retirement opened the race, yet Democratic nominee Patty Garcia secured a dominant primary victory while Republican nominee Lupe Castillo and minor candidates face structural disadvantages in voter registration and fundraising. Recent ballot rulings removing independent challengers further consolidated the field ahead of the November 2026 general election. Trader consensus at 93.5% for Democrats reflects these entrenched partisan patterns and limited opposition resources. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen scandal affecting the Democratic candidate or a broad national political realignment altering turnout dynamics in the district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$55,591終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Illinois 4th congressional district remains a strongly Democratic seat centered in southwest Chicago and nearby suburbs such as Cicero and Berwyn, where the party has long held commanding margins in federal elections. Incumbent Jesús “Chuy” García’s retirement opened the race, yet Democratic nominee Patty Garcia secured a dominant primary victory while Republican nominee Lupe Castillo and minor candidates face structural disadvantages in voter registration and fundraising. Recent ballot rulings removing independent challengers further consolidated the field ahead of the November 2026 general election. Trader consensus at 93.5% for Democrats reflects these entrenched partisan patterns and limited opposition resources. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen scandal affecting the Democratic candidate or a broad national political realignment altering turnout dynamics in the district.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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