Incumbent Republican Mike Bost faces Democratic nominee Julie Fortier in Illinois's 12th congressional district, a southern Illinois seat covering areas like Carbondale and O'Fallon that has consistently favored Republicans. Bost secured 74 percent of the vote in 2024 and advanced unopposed in the March 2026 primary, while forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican based on the district's partisan composition and limited Democratic infrastructure. Traders assign the Republican Party a 94.5 percent implied probability, reflecting the seat's structural advantages and absence of competitive polling shifts or major campaign developments through mid-2026. A realistic challenge would require an unforeseen national political wave, significant candidate scandal, or unusually high Democratic turnout that alters the established voting patterns.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$18,824 Vol.
$18,824 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
95%
民主党
5%
$18,824 Vol.
$18,824 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
$8,119 Vol.
95%
民主党
$10,705 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mike Bost faces Democratic nominee Julie Fortier in Illinois's 12th congressional district, a southern Illinois seat covering areas like Carbondale and O'Fallon that has consistently favored Republicans. Bost secured 74 percent of the vote in 2024 and advanced unopposed in the March 2026 primary, while forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican based on the district's partisan composition and limited Democratic infrastructure. Traders assign the Republican Party a 94.5 percent implied probability, reflecting the seat's structural advantages and absence of competitive polling shifts or major campaign developments through mid-2026. A realistic challenge would require an unforeseen national political wave, significant candidate scandal, or unusually high Democratic turnout that alters the established voting patterns.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
音量
$18,824終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mike Bost faces Democratic nominee Julie Fortier in Illinois's 12th congressional district, a southern Illinois seat covering areas like Carbondale and O'Fallon that has consistently favored Republicans. Bost secured 74 percent of the vote in 2024 and advanced unopposed in the March 2026 primary, while forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican based on the district's partisan composition and limited Democratic infrastructure. Traders assign the Republican Party a 94.5 percent implied probability, reflecting the seat's structural advantages and absence of competitive polling shifts or major campaign developments through mid-2026. A realistic challenge would require an unforeseen national political wave, significant candidate scandal, or unusually high Democratic turnout that alters the established voting patterns.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$18,824終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Mike Bost faces Democratic nominee Julie Fortier in Illinois's 12th congressional district, a southern Illinois seat covering areas like Carbondale and O'Fallon that has consistently favored Republicans. Bost secured 74 percent of the vote in 2024 and advanced unopposed in the March 2026 primary, while forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican based on the district's partisan composition and limited Democratic infrastructure. Traders assign the Republican Party a 94.5 percent implied probability, reflecting the seat's structural advantages and absence of competitive polling shifts or major campaign developments through mid-2026. A realistic challenge would require an unforeseen national political wave, significant candidate scandal, or unusually high Democratic turnout that alters the established voting patterns.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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