Incumbent Republican Mike Bost's commanding position in the Illinois 12th congressional district race stems from the district's established Republican lean in southern Illinois, including areas around Carbondale and O'Fallon, where he secured a 74-point margin in 2024. Both major party primaries have concluded, with Bost advancing unopposed on the Republican side and Julie Fortier as the Democratic nominee. Trader consensus reflected in the current odds aligns with this structural advantage and historical voting patterns in the district. A late scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unusually strong Democratic national environment could still narrow the gap before November 2026.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$18,331 Vol.
$18,331 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
94%
民主党
5%
$18,331 Vol.
$18,331 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
$7,864 Vol.
94%
民主党
$10,467 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mike Bost's commanding position in the Illinois 12th congressional district race stems from the district's established Republican lean in southern Illinois, including areas around Carbondale and O'Fallon, where he secured a 74-point margin in 2024. Both major party primaries have concluded, with Bost advancing unopposed on the Republican side and Julie Fortier as the Democratic nominee. Trader consensus reflected in the current odds aligns with this structural advantage and historical voting patterns in the district. A late scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unusually strong Democratic national environment could still narrow the gap before November 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
音量
$18,331終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mike Bost's commanding position in the Illinois 12th congressional district race stems from the district's established Republican lean in southern Illinois, including areas around Carbondale and O'Fallon, where he secured a 74-point margin in 2024. Both major party primaries have concluded, with Bost advancing unopposed on the Republican side and Julie Fortier as the Democratic nominee. Trader consensus reflected in the current odds aligns with this structural advantage and historical voting patterns in the district. A late scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unusually strong Democratic national environment could still narrow the gap before November 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$18,331終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Mike Bost's commanding position in the Illinois 12th congressional district race stems from the district's established Republican lean in southern Illinois, including areas around Carbondale and O'Fallon, where he secured a 74-point margin in 2024. Both major party primaries have concluded, with Bost advancing unopposed on the Republican side and Julie Fortier as the Democratic nominee. Trader consensus reflected in the current odds aligns with this structural advantage and historical voting patterns in the district. A late scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unusually strong Democratic national environment could still narrow the gap before November 2026.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問