Iranian Kurdish opposition parties, unified in the Coalition of Political Forces of Iranian Kurdistan since February 2026, have focused on regime change, self-determination, and regional democratic administration within Iran rather than a formal independence declaration. Coordinated strikes, protests, and external support for uprisings have advanced these aims without shifting stated goals toward secession. Traders assign 98% probability to “No” because Kurdish groups lack the territorial control, unified military capacity, or international backing needed for a viable declaration before the June 2026 resolution date, and neighboring states plus major powers oppose fragmentation of Iranian territory. Late escalations in the ongoing conflict or abrupt changes in coalition priorities remain the primary factors that could still alter the outcome.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$144,538 Vol.
$144,538 Vol.
2026/06/30
はい
$144,538 Vol.
$144,538 Vol.
2026/06/30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if PJAK (Party for a Free Life in Kurdistan), the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (PDKI), Komala, the Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK), or a successor Kurdish organization with broad recognition among Iranian Kurdish opposition groups, or a Kurdish official within Iran formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iran and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iran before June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iran and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iranian governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iran as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Iranian Kurdish opposition parties, unified in the Coalition of Political Forces of Iranian Kurdistan since February 2026, have focused on regime change, self-determination, and regional democratic administration within Iran rather than a formal independence declaration. Coordinated strikes, protests, and external support for uprisings have advanced these aims without shifting stated goals toward secession. Traders assign 98% probability to “No” because Kurdish groups lack the territorial control, unified military capacity, or international backing needed for a viable declaration before the June 2026 resolution date, and neighboring states plus major powers oppose fragmentation of Iranian territory. Late escalations in the ongoing conflict or abrupt changes in coalition priorities remain the primary factors that could still alter the outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if PJAK (Party for a Free Life in Kurdistan), the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (PDKI), Komala, the Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK), or a successor Kurdish organization with broad recognition among Iranian Kurdish opposition groups, or a Kurdish official within Iran formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iran and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iran before June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iran and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iranian governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iran as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iran and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iranian governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iran as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Mar 3, 2026, 6:16 PM ET
音量
$144,538終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Mar 3, 2026, 6:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if PJAK (Party for a Free Life in Kurdistan), the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (PDKI), Komala, the Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK), or a successor Kurdish organization with broad recognition among Iranian Kurdish opposition groups, or a Kurdish official within Iran formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iran and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iran before June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iran and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iranian governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iran as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Iranian Kurdish opposition parties, unified in the Coalition of Political Forces of Iranian Kurdistan since February 2026, have focused on regime change, self-determination, and regional democratic administration within Iran rather than a formal independence declaration. Coordinated strikes, protests, and external support for uprisings have advanced these aims without shifting stated goals toward secession. Traders assign 98% probability to “No” because Kurdish groups lack the territorial control, unified military capacity, or international backing needed for a viable declaration before the June 2026 resolution date, and neighboring states plus major powers oppose fragmentation of Iranian territory. Late escalations in the ongoing conflict or abrupt changes in coalition priorities remain the primary factors that could still alter the outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if PJAK (Party for a Free Life in Kurdistan), the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (PDKI), Komala, the Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK), or a successor Kurdish organization with broad recognition among Iranian Kurdish opposition groups, or a Kurdish official within Iran formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iran and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iran before June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iran and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iranian governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iran as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iran and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iranian governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iran as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$144,538終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Mar 3, 2026, 6:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iranian Kurdish opposition parties, unified in the Coalition of Political Forces of Iranian Kurdistan since February 2026, have focused on regime change, self-determination, and regional democratic administration within Iran rather than a formal independence declaration. Coordinated strikes, protests, and external support for uprisings have advanced these aims without shifting stated goals toward secession. Traders assign 98% probability to “No” because Kurdish groups lack the territorial control, unified military capacity, or international backing needed for a viable declaration before the June 2026 resolution date, and neighboring states plus major powers oppose fragmentation of Iranian territory. Late escalations in the ongoing conflict or abrupt changes in coalition priorities remain the primary factors that could still alter the outcome.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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外部リンクに注意してください。
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