Iranian Kurdish opposition groups have intensified coordination since early 2026, forming the Coalition of Political Forces of Iranian Kurdistan in February to pursue self-determination and regime change amid protests and regional conflict, yet these efforts center on autonomy or federal arrangements within a post-regime Iranian framework rather than a unilateral independence declaration. Iranian security forces have maintained firm control through crackdowns, while neighboring states including Turkey and Iraq oppose separatism that could destabilize borders. Kurdish leaders and analysts have repeatedly moderated demands toward decentralized self-administration inside a unified state, consistent with historical patterns after past uprisings. With no verified statements, parliamentary actions, or territorial claims signaling an imminent declaration, traders assign 98.3% probability to No. Potential shifts remain tied to scenarios such as sudden regime collapse creating a power vacuum or unexpected external military backing that alters incentives, though current trajectories show no such trajectory.