Kurdish opposition parties in Iran formed the Coalition of Political Forces of Iranian Kurdistan in February 2026 to pursue regime change and self-determination through a democratic administrative system in Kurdish-majority areas, explicitly framing any transition as occurring within a post-regime Iran rather than via secession. Major groups including the PDKI, PAK, and PJAK have coordinated from bases in Iraq amid protests and external discussions of support for anti-regime activity, while consistently rejecting formal independence declarations or assertions of separate state authority over Iranian territory. Trader consensus at 98% for No reflects these stated priorities, the absence of any qualifying declaration by mid-2026, and regional opposition to fragmentation. Late developments such as a sudden regime collapse creating a power vacuum or shifts in coalition strategy could still prompt reconsideration before the June 30 resolution date.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$145,008 Vol.
$145,008 Vol.
2026/06/30
はい
$145,008 Vol.
$145,008 Vol.
2026/06/30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if PJAK (Party for a Free Life in Kurdistan), the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (PDKI), Komala, the Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK), or a successor Kurdish organization with broad recognition among Iranian Kurdish opposition groups, or a Kurdish official within Iran formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iran and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iran before June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iran and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iranian governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iran as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Kurdish opposition parties in Iran formed the Coalition of Political Forces of Iranian Kurdistan in February 2026 to pursue regime change and self-determination through a democratic administrative system in Kurdish-majority areas, explicitly framing any transition as occurring within a post-regime Iran rather than via secession. Major groups including the PDKI, PAK, and PJAK have coordinated from bases in Iraq amid protests and external discussions of support for anti-regime activity, while consistently rejecting formal independence declarations or assertions of separate state authority over Iranian territory. Trader consensus at 98% for No reflects these stated priorities, the absence of any qualifying declaration by mid-2026, and regional opposition to fragmentation. Late developments such as a sudden regime collapse creating a power vacuum or shifts in coalition strategy could still prompt reconsideration before the June 30 resolution date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if PJAK (Party for a Free Life in Kurdistan), the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (PDKI), Komala, the Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK), or a successor Kurdish organization with broad recognition among Iranian Kurdish opposition groups, or a Kurdish official within Iran formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iran and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iran before June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iran and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iranian governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iran as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iran and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iranian governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iran as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Mar 3, 2026, 6:16 PM ET
音量
$145,008終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Mar 3, 2026, 6:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if PJAK (Party for a Free Life in Kurdistan), the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (PDKI), Komala, the Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK), or a successor Kurdish organization with broad recognition among Iranian Kurdish opposition groups, or a Kurdish official within Iran formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iran and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iran before June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iran and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iranian governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iran as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Kurdish opposition parties in Iran formed the Coalition of Political Forces of Iranian Kurdistan in February 2026 to pursue regime change and self-determination through a democratic administrative system in Kurdish-majority areas, explicitly framing any transition as occurring within a post-regime Iran rather than via secession. Major groups including the PDKI, PAK, and PJAK have coordinated from bases in Iraq amid protests and external discussions of support for anti-regime activity, while consistently rejecting formal independence declarations or assertions of separate state authority over Iranian territory. Trader consensus at 98% for No reflects these stated priorities, the absence of any qualifying declaration by mid-2026, and regional opposition to fragmentation. Late developments such as a sudden regime collapse creating a power vacuum or shifts in coalition strategy could still prompt reconsideration before the June 30 resolution date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if PJAK (Party for a Free Life in Kurdistan), the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (PDKI), Komala, the Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK), or a successor Kurdish organization with broad recognition among Iranian Kurdish opposition groups, or a Kurdish official within Iran formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iran and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iran before June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iran and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iranian governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iran as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iran and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iranian governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iran as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$145,008終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Mar 3, 2026, 6:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Kurdish opposition parties in Iran formed the Coalition of Political Forces of Iranian Kurdistan in February 2026 to pursue regime change and self-determination through a democratic administrative system in Kurdish-majority areas, explicitly framing any transition as occurring within a post-regime Iran rather than via secession. Major groups including the PDKI, PAK, and PJAK have coordinated from bases in Iraq amid protests and external discussions of support for anti-regime activity, while consistently rejecting formal independence declarations or assertions of separate state authority over Iranian territory. Trader consensus at 98% for No reflects these stated priorities, the absence of any qualifying declaration by mid-2026, and regional opposition to fragmentation. Late developments such as a sudden regime collapse creating a power vacuum or shifts in coalition strategy could still prompt reconsideration before the June 30 resolution date.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問