Iranian Kurdish opposition groups formed the Coalition of Political Forces of Iranian Kurdistan in February 2026 to coordinate efforts toward regime transition and self-determination in Kurdish-majority areas, yet their stated aims emphasize democratic administration during any power vacuum or federal arrangements rather than immediate formal secession. Limited insurgent activity and protests have occurred amid broader regional instability and external pressures on Tehran, but Iranian security forces retain control, neighboring states oppose fragmentation, and most parties prioritize overthrowing the central government over declaring an independent state. This lack of unified secessionist momentum and structural barriers sustain the near-certain trader consensus against a declaration. Shifts remain possible only through sudden regime collapse creating a power vacuum, unexpected large-scale external military support, or major escalations enabling coordinated action.