Recent forecast model consensus, including GFS runs and agency guidance, points to overnight cooling under partly cloudy skies and northeasterly flow, with the daily minimum expected to reach 16°C in Istanbul on September 15. This aligns closely with climatological norms for mid-September while reflecting slightly cooler conditions than recent days. Trader positioning heavily favors 16°C at over 54% implied probability, as current observations and short-range guidance show temperatures bottoming near that threshold before daytime warming. Limited model spread and stable steering patterns reduce the likelihood of notable deviations, though minor revisions in evening data could still influence final recorded values.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日9月15日のイスタンブールの最低気温は？
9月15日のイスタンブールの最低気温は？
16℃ 100.0%
14℃以下 <1%
15°C <1%
17℃ <1%
$2,105 Vol.
$2,105 Vol.
2026/09/15
14℃以下
いいえ
15°C
いいえ
16℃
はい
17℃
いいえ
18℃
いいえ
19°C
いいえ
20℃
いいえ
21°C
いいえ
22℃
いいえ
23℃
いいえ
24℃以上
いいえ
16℃ 100.0%
14℃以下 <1%
15°C <1%
17℃ <1%
$2,105 Vol.
$2,105 Vol.
2026/09/15
14℃以下
$134 Vol.
いいえ
15°C
$98 Vol.
いいえ
16℃
$336 Vol.
はい
17℃
$380 Vol.
いいえ
18℃
$375 Vol.
いいえ
19°C
$476 Vol.
いいえ
20℃
$156 Vol.
いいえ
21°C
$60 Vol.
いいえ
22℃
$26 Vol.
いいえ
23℃
$32 Vol.
いいえ
24℃以上
$32 Vol.
いいえ
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus, including GFS runs and agency guidance, points to overnight cooling under partly cloudy skies and northeasterly flow, with the daily minimum expected to reach 16°C in Istanbul on September 15. This aligns closely with climatological norms for mid-September while reflecting slightly cooler conditions than recent days. Trader positioning heavily favors 16°C at over 54% implied probability, as current observations and short-range guidance show temperatures bottoming near that threshold before daytime warming. Limited model spread and stable steering patterns reduce the likelihood of notable deviations, though minor revisions in evening data could still influence final recorded values.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Sep 13, 2026, 1:32 PM ET
音量
$2,105終了日
2026/09/15マーケット開始日
Sep 13, 2026, 1:32 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...提案された結果: いいえ
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: いいえ
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus, including GFS runs and agency guidance, points to overnight cooling under partly cloudy skies and northeasterly flow, with the daily minimum expected to reach 16°C in Istanbul on September 15. This aligns closely with climatological norms for mid-September while reflecting slightly cooler conditions than recent days. Trader positioning heavily favors 16°C at over 54% implied probability, as current observations and short-range guidance show temperatures bottoming near that threshold before daytime warming. Limited model spread and stable steering patterns reduce the likelihood of notable deviations, though minor revisions in evening data could still influence final recorded values.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
音量
$2,105終了日
2026/09/15マーケット開始日
Sep 13, 2026, 1:32 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...提案された結果: いいえ
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: いいえ
Recent forecast model consensus, including GFS runs and agency guidance, points to overnight cooling under partly cloudy skies and northeasterly flow, with the daily minimum expected to reach 16°C in Istanbul on September 15. This aligns closely with climatological norms for mid-September while reflecting slightly cooler conditions than recent days. Trader positioning heavily favors 16°C at over 54% implied probability, as current observations and short-range guidance show temperatures bottoming near that threshold before daytime warming. Limited model spread and stable steering patterns reduce the likelihood of notable deviations, though minor revisions in evening data could still influence final recorded values.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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