**Forecast models indicate a minimum temperature in Tokyo on September 15 most likely between 22–24°C, aligning closely with current market-implied probabilities led by 23°C at 38%.** Persistent cloud cover, widespread thunderstorms, and southerly flow are expected to limit radiational cooling overnight, holding lows near or slightly above seasonal averages around 22–23°C. Recent model runs from sources like GFS show consistent overnight readings near 23°C amid high humidity and precipitation probabilities exceeding 80%, with limited model spread supporting the tight clustering of trader odds around 22–24°C. Updated forecasts emphasize steady warm advection preventing sharper drops, though any clearing could allow a brief dip toward 22°C or below.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日9月15日の東京の最低気温は？
9月15日の東京の最低気温は？
23℃ 38%
24℃ 28%
22℃ 22%
20℃ 12%
新規
新規
2026/09/15
19℃以下
2%
20℃
12%
21℃
7%
22℃
22%
23℃
38%
24℃
28%
25°C
10%
26℃
2%
27℃
2%
28℃
1%
29℃以上
1%
23℃ 38%
24℃ 28%
22℃ 22%
20℃ 12%
新規
新規
2026/09/15
19℃以下
$10 Vol.
2%
20℃
$30 Vol.
12%
21℃
$31 Vol.
7%
22℃
$470 Vol.
22%
23℃
$143 Vol.
38%
24℃
$583 Vol.
28%
25°C
$31 Vol.
10%
26℃
$10 Vol.
2%
27℃
$10 Vol.
2%
28℃
$10 Vol.
1%
29℃以上
$10 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models indicate a minimum temperature in Tokyo on September 15 most likely between 22–24°C, aligning closely with current market-implied probabilities led by 23°C at 38%.** Persistent cloud cover, widespread thunderstorms, and southerly flow are expected to limit radiational cooling overnight, holding lows near or slightly above seasonal averages around 22–23°C. Recent model runs from sources like GFS show consistent overnight readings near 23°C amid high humidity and precipitation probabilities exceeding 80%, with limited model spread supporting the tight clustering of trader odds around 22–24°C. Updated forecasts emphasize steady warm advection preventing sharper drops, though any clearing could allow a brief dip toward 22°C or below.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Sep 13, 2026, 1:30 PM ET
音量
$1,339終了日
2026/09/15マーケット開始日
Sep 13, 2026, 1:30 PM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models indicate a minimum temperature in Tokyo on September 15 most likely between 22–24°C, aligning closely with current market-implied probabilities led by 23°C at 38%.** Persistent cloud cover, widespread thunderstorms, and southerly flow are expected to limit radiational cooling overnight, holding lows near or slightly above seasonal averages around 22–23°C. Recent model runs from sources like GFS show consistent overnight readings near 23°C amid high humidity and precipitation probabilities exceeding 80%, with limited model spread supporting the tight clustering of trader odds around 22–24°C. Updated forecasts emphasize steady warm advection preventing sharper drops, though any clearing could allow a brief dip toward 22°C or below.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
音量
$1,339終了日
2026/09/15マーケット開始日
Sep 13, 2026, 1:30 PM ET**Forecast models indicate a minimum temperature in Tokyo on September 15 most likely between 22–24°C, aligning closely with current market-implied probabilities led by 23°C at 38%.** Persistent cloud cover, widespread thunderstorms, and southerly flow are expected to limit radiational cooling overnight, holding lows near or slightly above seasonal averages around 22–23°C. Recent model runs from sources like GFS show consistent overnight readings near 23°C amid high humidity and precipitation probabilities exceeding 80%, with limited model spread supporting the tight clustering of trader odds around 22–24°C. Updated forecasts emphasize steady warm advection preventing sharper drops, though any clearing could allow a brief dip toward 22°C or below.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問