**Forecast consensus positions 30–31°C as the clear favorites for Tokyo’s September 14 high.** Multiple numerical weather models and agency outlooks, including those aligned with Japan Meteorological Agency guidance, converge on a daytime maximum of 30–31°C under partly cloudy skies with southerly flow. This setup favors modest warming while limiting extreme heating or rapid cooling. **Key drivers include warm, humid air advection from the south and limited daytime cloud cover or precipitation.** Most runs show only a modest chance of light showers or drizzle, insufficient to suppress temperatures significantly. Historical September baselines for Tokyo (climatological highs near 27–28°C) make the current signal modestly above average but well within typical late-summer variability. **Model spread remains narrow, supporting the market’s tight clustering around 30°C (43.5%) and 31°C (33.5%).** A few guidance solutions reach 32°C or dip to 29°C, consistent with their lower implied probabilities (6.5% and 15%). Resolution will hinge on the official JMA station reading; any late-model shift in steering flow or cloud timing could nudge the outcome within this narrow band before the 14th.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日9月14日の東京の最高気温は？
9月14日の東京の最高気温は？
30℃ 44%
31°C 34%
29℃ 16%
32℃ 7%
新規
新規
2026/09/14
25℃以下
<1%
26℃
1%
27℃
2%
28°C
4%
29℃
16%
30℃
44%
31°C
34%
32℃
7%
33℃
2%
34℃
1%
35℃以上
<1%
30℃ 44%
31°C 34%
29℃ 16%
32℃ 7%
新規
新規
2026/09/14
25℃以下
$329 Vol.
<1%
26℃
$129 Vol.
1%
27℃
$151 Vol.
2%
28°C
$126 Vol.
4%
29℃
$831 Vol.
16%
30℃
$759 Vol.
44%
31°C
$1,804 Vol.
34%
32℃
$241 Vol.
7%
33℃
$100 Vol.
2%
34℃
$148 Vol.
1%
35℃以上
$353 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus positions 30–31°C as the clear favorites for Tokyo’s September 14 high.** Multiple numerical weather models and agency outlooks, including those aligned with Japan Meteorological Agency guidance, converge on a daytime maximum of 30–31°C under partly cloudy skies with southerly flow. This setup favors modest warming while limiting extreme heating or rapid cooling.
**Key drivers include warm, humid air advection from the south and limited daytime cloud cover or precipitation.** Most runs show only a modest chance of light showers or drizzle, insufficient to suppress temperatures significantly. Historical September baselines for Tokyo (climatological highs near 27–28°C) make the current signal modestly above average but well within typical late-summer variability.
**Model spread remains narrow, supporting the market’s tight clustering around 30°C (43.5%) and 31°C (33.5%).** A few guidance solutions reach 32°C or dip to 29°C, consistent with their lower implied probabilities (6.5% and 15%). Resolution will hinge on the official JMA station reading; any late-model shift in steering flow or cloud timing could nudge the outcome within this narrow band before the 14th.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Sep 12, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
音量
$4,970終了日
2026/09/14マーケット開始日
Sep 12, 2026, 12:56 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus positions 30–31°C as the clear favorites for Tokyo’s September 14 high.** Multiple numerical weather models and agency outlooks, including those aligned with Japan Meteorological Agency guidance, converge on a daytime maximum of 30–31°C under partly cloudy skies with southerly flow. This setup favors modest warming while limiting extreme heating or rapid cooling.
**Key drivers include warm, humid air advection from the south and limited daytime cloud cover or precipitation.** Most runs show only a modest chance of light showers or drizzle, insufficient to suppress temperatures significantly. Historical September baselines for Tokyo (climatological highs near 27–28°C) make the current signal modestly above average but well within typical late-summer variability.
**Model spread remains narrow, supporting the market’s tight clustering around 30°C (43.5%) and 31°C (33.5%).** A few guidance solutions reach 32°C or dip to 29°C, consistent with their lower implied probabilities (6.5% and 15%). Resolution will hinge on the official JMA station reading; any late-model shift in steering flow or cloud timing could nudge the outcome within this narrow band before the 14th.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
音量
$4,970終了日
2026/09/14マーケット開始日
Sep 12, 2026, 12:56 AM ET**Forecast consensus positions 30–31°C as the clear favorites for Tokyo’s September 14 high.** Multiple numerical weather models and agency outlooks, including those aligned with Japan Meteorological Agency guidance, converge on a daytime maximum of 30–31°C under partly cloudy skies with southerly flow. This setup favors modest warming while limiting extreme heating or rapid cooling. **Key drivers include warm, humid air advection from the south and limited daytime cloud cover or precipitation.** Most runs show only a modest chance of light showers or drizzle, insufficient to suppress temperatures significantly. Historical September baselines for Tokyo (climatological highs near 27–28°C) make the current signal modestly above average but well within typical late-summer variability. **Model spread remains narrow, supporting the market’s tight clustering around 30°C (43.5%) and 31°C (33.5%).** A few guidance solutions reach 32°C or dip to 29°C, consistent with their lower implied probabilities (6.5% and 15%). Resolution will hinge on the official JMA station reading; any late-model shift in steering flow or cloud timing could nudge the outcome within this narrow band before the 14th.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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