Traders see the strongest implied probability at 38.5% for a low of 18°C or below in Wuhan on September 14, reflecting model consensus around a cooler-than-average air mass moving into central China. Recent ECMWF and GFS runs indicate potential for enhanced radiative cooling under clearer skies and lighter winds, with seasonal norms for mid-September lows near 20–22°C. Key variables differentiating the closely matched outcomes include forecast spread in nocturnal cloud cover, boundary-layer moisture, and any late-arriving frontal passage that could moderate minimum temperatures. Official guidance from the China Meteorological Administration and ensemble spreads highlight the usual 2–4°C uncertainty range this far ahead, underscoring why no single threshold dominates market sentiment. Updated model runs expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these probabilities.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日9月14日の武漢の最低気温は？
9月14日の武漢の最低気温は？
18℃以下 75%
28℃以上 57%
19℃ 39%
20°C 39%
新規
新規
2026/09/14
18℃以下
75%
19℃
39%
20°C
39%
21℃
39%
22℃
31%
23℃
29%
24℃
23%
25°C
39%
26℃
39%
27°C
39%
28℃以上
57%
18℃以下 75%
28℃以上 57%
19℃ 39%
20°C 39%
新規
新規
2026/09/14
18℃以下
$0 Vol.
75%
19℃
$0 Vol.
39%
20°C
$0 Vol.
39%
21℃
$0 Vol.
39%
22℃
$0 Vol.
31%
23℃
$0 Vol.
29%
24℃
$0 Vol.
23%
25°C
$0 Vol.
39%
26℃
$0 Vol.
39%
27°C
$0 Vol.
39%
28℃以上
$0 Vol.
57%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders see the strongest implied probability at 38.5% for a low of 18°C or below in Wuhan on September 14, reflecting model consensus around a cooler-than-average air mass moving into central China. Recent ECMWF and GFS runs indicate potential for enhanced radiative cooling under clearer skies and lighter winds, with seasonal norms for mid-September lows near 20–22°C. Key variables differentiating the closely matched outcomes include forecast spread in nocturnal cloud cover, boundary-layer moisture, and any late-arriving frontal passage that could moderate minimum temperatures. Official guidance from the China Meteorological Administration and ensemble spreads highlight the usual 2–4°C uncertainty range this far ahead, underscoring why no single threshold dominates market sentiment. Updated model runs expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Sep 12, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
音量
$0終了日
2026/09/14マーケット開始日
Sep 12, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders see the strongest implied probability at 38.5% for a low of 18°C or below in Wuhan on September 14, reflecting model consensus around a cooler-than-average air mass moving into central China. Recent ECMWF and GFS runs indicate potential for enhanced radiative cooling under clearer skies and lighter winds, with seasonal norms for mid-September lows near 20–22°C. Key variables differentiating the closely matched outcomes include forecast spread in nocturnal cloud cover, boundary-layer moisture, and any late-arriving frontal passage that could moderate minimum temperatures. Official guidance from the China Meteorological Administration and ensemble spreads highlight the usual 2–4°C uncertainty range this far ahead, underscoring why no single threshold dominates market sentiment. Updated model runs expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
音量
$0終了日
2026/09/14マーケット開始日
Sep 12, 2026, 12:30 AM ETTraders see the strongest implied probability at 38.5% for a low of 18°C or below in Wuhan on September 14, reflecting model consensus around a cooler-than-average air mass moving into central China. Recent ECMWF and GFS runs indicate potential for enhanced radiative cooling under clearer skies and lighter winds, with seasonal norms for mid-September lows near 20–22°C. Key variables differentiating the closely matched outcomes include forecast spread in nocturnal cloud cover, boundary-layer moisture, and any late-arriving frontal passage that could moderate minimum temperatures. Official guidance from the China Meteorological Administration and ensemble spreads highlight the usual 2–4°C uncertainty range this far ahead, underscoring why no single threshold dominates market sentiment. Updated model runs expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these probabilities.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問