Recent May 2026 polls show Morena holding a wide lead near 39 percent while PAN, MC, and PRI cluster tightly in the low-to-mid teens, with PVEM and PT lower still, leaving seat projections for second place highly sensitive to coalition strategies, district-level performance, and proportional allocation rules ahead of the June 2027 vote. PT and MC lead the market because traders view their respective alliance ties and regional bases as plausible paths to edge out other contenders in total Chamber seats, despite low national shares. The March 2026 electoral reform setback exposed fractures within the Morena-PVEM-PT bloc and galvanized opposition coordination among PAN, PRI, and MC, sustaining uncertainty. Late shifts in turnout, candidate quality, or formal alliances could quickly reorder probabilities before election day.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日PAN 53%
PRI 24.5%
PVEM 7%
Morena 5.9%
$35,079 Vol.
$35,079 Vol.

PAN
59%

PRI
33%

PT
<1%

PVEM
7%

MC
<1%

Morena
6%
PAN 53%
PRI 24.5%
PVEM 7%
Morena 5.9%
$35,079 Vol.
$35,079 Vol.

PAN
59%

PRI
33%

PT
<1%

PVEM
7%

MC
<1%

Morena
6%
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second greatest number of seats in the Mexican Chamber of Deputies (Cámara de Diputados) as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Mexican Chamber of Deputies.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Mexican Government, specifically the National Electoral Institute (https://ine.mx/).
マーケット開始日: May 21, 2026, 5:11 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second greatest number of seats in the Mexican Chamber of Deputies (Cámara de Diputados) as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Mexican Chamber of Deputies.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Mexican Government, specifically the National Electoral Institute (https://ine.mx/).
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent May 2026 polls show Morena holding a wide lead near 39 percent while PAN, MC, and PRI cluster tightly in the low-to-mid teens, with PVEM and PT lower still, leaving seat projections for second place highly sensitive to coalition strategies, district-level performance, and proportional allocation rules ahead of the June 2027 vote. PT and MC lead the market because traders view their respective alliance ties and regional bases as plausible paths to edge out other contenders in total Chamber seats, despite low national shares. The March 2026 electoral reform setback exposed fractures within the Morena-PVEM-PT bloc and galvanized opposition coordination among PAN, PRI, and MC, sustaining uncertainty. Late shifts in turnout, candidate quality, or formal alliances could quickly reorder probabilities before election day.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日


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