With voting underway since April 7 among roughly 20,500 Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) members to select François Legault's successor as party leader and Quebec premier—set to conclude April 12—trader consensus heavily favors Christine Fréchette at 76.5% implied probability over Bernard Drainville's 21.5%, reflecting her consistent lead in public opinion polls and endorsements from 41 MNAs as of April 8 compared to Drainville's 19. Recent boosts for Drainville include endorsements from three cabinet ministers on April 6 amid heated debates over immigration and language policy, yet polls from early April indicate Fréchette better positions the CAQ for the October provincial election by improving voter intentions, underscoring her frontrunner status despite the race's competitiveness.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Next Premier of Quebec
Next Premier of Quebec
新規
新規
2026/04/12
Christine Fréchette
77%
Bernard Drainville
22%
新規
新規
2026/04/12
Christine Fréchette
$3,598 Vol.
77%
Bernard Drainville
$5,759 Vol.
22%
Leadership elections for the Quebec governing political party, Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ), are scheduled to be held on April 12, 2026.
This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of Quebec as a result of the CAQ leadership elections.
To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as Premier following the 2026 CAQ leadership elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Premier is appointed by the date of the next Quebec general election, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Quebec; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.With voting underway since April 7 among roughly 20,500 Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) members to select François Legault's successor as party leader and Quebec premier—set to conclude April 12—trader consensus heavily favors Christine Fréchette at 76.5% implied probability over Bernard Drainville's 21.5%, reflecting her consistent lead in public opinion polls and endorsements from 41 MNAs as of April 8 compared to Drainville's 19. Recent boosts for Drainville include endorsements from three cabinet ministers on April 6 amid heated debates over immigration and language policy, yet polls from early April indicate Fréchette better positions the CAQ for the October provincial election by improving voter intentions, underscoring her frontrunner status despite the race's competitiveness.
Leadership elections for the Quebec governing political party, Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ), are scheduled to be held on April 12, 2026.
This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of Quebec as a result of the CAQ leadership elections.
To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as Premier following the 2026 CAQ leadership elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Premier is appointed by the date of the next Quebec general election, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Quebec; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of Quebec as a result of the CAQ leadership elections.
To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as Premier following the 2026 CAQ leadership elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Premier is appointed by the date of the next Quebec general election, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Quebec; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Apr 6, 2026, 6:09 PM ET
音量
$9,357終了日
2026/04/12マーケット開始日
Apr 6, 2026, 6:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Leadership elections for the Quebec governing political party, Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ), are scheduled to be held on April 12, 2026.
This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of Quebec as a result of the CAQ leadership elections.
To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as Premier following the 2026 CAQ leadership elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Premier is appointed by the date of the next Quebec general election, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Quebec; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.With voting underway since April 7 among roughly 20,500 Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) members to select François Legault's successor as party leader and Quebec premier—set to conclude April 12—trader consensus heavily favors Christine Fréchette at 76.5% implied probability over Bernard Drainville's 21.5%, reflecting her consistent lead in public opinion polls and endorsements from 41 MNAs as of April 8 compared to Drainville's 19. Recent boosts for Drainville include endorsements from three cabinet ministers on April 6 amid heated debates over immigration and language policy, yet polls from early April indicate Fréchette better positions the CAQ for the October provincial election by improving voter intentions, underscoring her frontrunner status despite the race's competitiveness.
Leadership elections for the Quebec governing political party, Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ), are scheduled to be held on April 12, 2026.
This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of Quebec as a result of the CAQ leadership elections.
To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as Premier following the 2026 CAQ leadership elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Premier is appointed by the date of the next Quebec general election, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Quebec; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of Quebec as a result of the CAQ leadership elections.
To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as Premier following the 2026 CAQ leadership elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Premier is appointed by the date of the next Quebec general election, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Quebec; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$9,357終了日
2026/04/12マーケット開始日
Apr 6, 2026, 6:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...With voting underway since April 7 among roughly 20,500 Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) members to select François Legault's successor as party leader and Quebec premier—set to conclude April 12—trader consensus heavily favors Christine Fréchette at 76.5% implied probability over Bernard Drainville's 21.5%, reflecting her consistent lead in public opinion polls and endorsements from 41 MNAs as of April 8 compared to Drainville's 19. Recent boosts for Drainville include endorsements from three cabinet ministers on April 6 amid heated debates over immigration and language policy, yet polls from early April indicate Fréchette better positions the CAQ for the October provincial election by improving voter intentions, underscoring her frontrunner status despite the race's competitiveness.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問