Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 62% implied probability that President Trump drops the DOJ investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell's handling of headquarters renovations before Kevin Warsh's Senate confirmation as his successor, driven by intensifying Republican Senate pressure ahead of next week's banking committee hearing. Sen. Thom Tillis has vowed to block Warsh—nominated in March to replace Powell, whose term expires in May—unless the probe ends, echoing Senate Majority Leader Thune's call to wrap it up amid judicial rulings citing "zero evidence" and blocked subpoenas. Despite Trump's April 15 insistence on continuing the probe and threats to fire Powell, traders anticipate political pragmatism yielding to confirmation urgency, with Fed independence and monetary policy transition in focus as Treasury yields hover near 4.2%.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/10/31
新規
新規
2026/10/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell over his congressional testimony in June 2025 about the renovation of the Central Bank’s headquarters is dropped before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The investigation will be considered to be dropped if it is definitively announced by the DoJ, Donald Trump, or other relevant members of the Trump Administration that the investigation is or will be ended without proceeding to any charges or indictment, or if the investigation is otherwise confirmed to have ended without charges by a broad consensus of credible reporting.
If the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Jerome Powell as a result of this investigation prior to Warsh’s confirmation, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the U.S. federal government. However, consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 62% implied probability that President Trump drops the DOJ investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell's handling of headquarters renovations before Kevin Warsh's Senate confirmation as his successor, driven by intensifying Republican Senate pressure ahead of next week's banking committee hearing. Sen. Thom Tillis has vowed to block Warsh—nominated in March to replace Powell, whose term expires in May—unless the probe ends, echoing Senate Majority Leader Thune's call to wrap it up amid judicial rulings citing "zero evidence" and blocked subpoenas. Despite Trump's April 15 insistence on continuing the probe and threats to fire Powell, traders anticipate political pragmatism yielding to confirmation urgency, with Fed independence and monetary policy transition in focus as Treasury yields hover near 4.2%.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell over his congressional testimony in June 2025 about the renovation of the Central Bank’s headquarters is dropped before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The investigation will be considered to be dropped if it is definitively announced by the DoJ, Donald Trump, or other relevant members of the Trump Administration that the investigation is or will be ended without proceeding to any charges or indictment, or if the investigation is otherwise confirmed to have ended without charges by a broad consensus of credible reporting.
If the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Jerome Powell as a result of this investigation prior to Warsh’s confirmation, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the U.S. federal government. However, consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The investigation will be considered to be dropped if it is definitively announced by the DoJ, Donald Trump, or other relevant members of the Trump Administration that the investigation is or will be ended without proceeding to any charges or indictment, or if the investigation is otherwise confirmed to have ended without charges by a broad consensus of credible reporting.
If the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Jerome Powell as a result of this investigation prior to Warsh’s confirmation, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the U.S. federal government. However, consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Apr 16, 2026, 10:48 AM ET
音量
$148終了日
2026/10/31マーケット開始日
Apr 16, 2026, 10:48 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell over his congressional testimony in June 2025 about the renovation of the Central Bank’s headquarters is dropped before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The investigation will be considered to be dropped if it is definitively announced by the DoJ, Donald Trump, or other relevant members of the Trump Administration that the investigation is or will be ended without proceeding to any charges or indictment, or if the investigation is otherwise confirmed to have ended without charges by a broad consensus of credible reporting.
If the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Jerome Powell as a result of this investigation prior to Warsh’s confirmation, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the U.S. federal government. However, consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 62% implied probability that President Trump drops the DOJ investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell's handling of headquarters renovations before Kevin Warsh's Senate confirmation as his successor, driven by intensifying Republican Senate pressure ahead of next week's banking committee hearing. Sen. Thom Tillis has vowed to block Warsh—nominated in March to replace Powell, whose term expires in May—unless the probe ends, echoing Senate Majority Leader Thune's call to wrap it up amid judicial rulings citing "zero evidence" and blocked subpoenas. Despite Trump's April 15 insistence on continuing the probe and threats to fire Powell, traders anticipate political pragmatism yielding to confirmation urgency, with Fed independence and monetary policy transition in focus as Treasury yields hover near 4.2%.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell over his congressional testimony in June 2025 about the renovation of the Central Bank’s headquarters is dropped before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The investigation will be considered to be dropped if it is definitively announced by the DoJ, Donald Trump, or other relevant members of the Trump Administration that the investigation is or will be ended without proceeding to any charges or indictment, or if the investigation is otherwise confirmed to have ended without charges by a broad consensus of credible reporting.
If the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Jerome Powell as a result of this investigation prior to Warsh’s confirmation, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the U.S. federal government. However, consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The investigation will be considered to be dropped if it is definitively announced by the DoJ, Donald Trump, or other relevant members of the Trump Administration that the investigation is or will be ended without proceeding to any charges or indictment, or if the investigation is otherwise confirmed to have ended without charges by a broad consensus of credible reporting.
If the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Jerome Powell as a result of this investigation prior to Warsh’s confirmation, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the U.S. federal government. However, consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$148終了日
2026/10/31マーケット開始日
Apr 16, 2026, 10:48 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 62% implied probability that President Trump drops the DOJ investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell's handling of headquarters renovations before Kevin Warsh's Senate confirmation as his successor, driven by intensifying Republican Senate pressure ahead of next week's banking committee hearing. Sen. Thom Tillis has vowed to block Warsh—nominated in March to replace Powell, whose term expires in May—unless the probe ends, echoing Senate Majority Leader Thune's call to wrap it up amid judicial rulings citing "zero evidence" and blocked subpoenas. Despite Trump's April 15 insistence on continuing the probe and threats to fire Powell, traders anticipate political pragmatism yielding to confirmation urgency, with Fed independence and monetary policy transition in focus as Treasury yields hover near 4.2%.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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