Apple's established annual release cadence, with flagship iPhones typically launching in September, underpins the 97% market-implied probability that at least one iPhone 18 model reaches the market in 2026. Recent credible reporting highlights a planned split rollout where iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max variants, plus the first foldable iPhone, are slated for fall 2026 alongside the A20 chip and camera upgrades, while standard models may shift to early 2027. Traders view this as low-risk given Apple's hardware supply chain maturity and lack of announced disruptions. Potential swing factors include unforeseen manufacturing delays from component shortages, regulatory certification hurdles in key regions, or a major redesign pivot, though historical precedent makes such outcomes improbable before year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$162,401 Vol.
$162,401 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$162,401 Vol.
$162,401 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's established annual release cadence, with flagship iPhones typically launching in September, underpins the 97% market-implied probability that at least one iPhone 18 model reaches the market in 2026. Recent credible reporting highlights a planned split rollout where iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max variants, plus the first foldable iPhone, are slated for fall 2026 alongside the A20 chip and camera upgrades, while standard models may shift to early 2027. Traders view this as low-risk given Apple's hardware supply chain maturity and lack of announced disruptions. Potential swing factors include unforeseen manufacturing delays from component shortages, regulatory certification hurdles in key regions, or a major redesign pivot, though historical precedent makes such outcomes improbable before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
音量
$162,401終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's established annual release cadence, with flagship iPhones typically launching in September, underpins the 97% market-implied probability that at least one iPhone 18 model reaches the market in 2026. Recent credible reporting highlights a planned split rollout where iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max variants, plus the first foldable iPhone, are slated for fall 2026 alongside the A20 chip and camera upgrades, while standard models may shift to early 2027. Traders view this as low-risk given Apple's hardware supply chain maturity and lack of announced disruptions. Potential swing factors include unforeseen manufacturing delays from component shortages, regulatory certification hurdles in key regions, or a major redesign pivot, though historical precedent makes such outcomes improbable before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$162,401終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple's established annual release cadence, with flagship iPhones typically launching in September, underpins the 97% market-implied probability that at least one iPhone 18 model reaches the market in 2026. Recent credible reporting highlights a planned split rollout where iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max variants, plus the first foldable iPhone, are slated for fall 2026 alongside the A20 chip and camera upgrades, while standard models may shift to early 2027. Traders view this as low-risk given Apple's hardware supply chain maturity and lack of announced disruptions. Potential swing factors include unforeseen manufacturing delays from component shortages, regulatory certification hurdles in key regions, or a major redesign pivot, though historical precedent makes such outcomes improbable before year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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