Apple’s long-established annual iPhone release cadence drives the 98.5% market-implied probability that the iPhone 18 will launch in 2026. The company has followed this pattern for more than a decade, aligning hardware iterations, large language model integrations, and supply chain ramps to a September window. Trader consensus treats any deviation as highly improbable absent major disruption. Realistic scenarios that could still shift the outcome include severe component shortages, significant regulatory delays on new wireless or AI features, or an unexpected pivot in product strategy, though none of these factors currently appear in credible reporting or filings.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
99% 確率
$173,244 Vol.
$173,244 Vol.
2026/12/30
はい
99% 確率
$173,244 Vol.
$173,244 Vol.
2026/12/30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s long-established annual iPhone release cadence drives the 98.5% market-implied probability that the iPhone 18 will launch in 2026. The company has followed this pattern for more than a decade, aligning hardware iterations, large language model integrations, and supply chain ramps to a September window. Trader consensus treats any deviation as highly improbable absent major disruption. Realistic scenarios that could still shift the outcome include severe component shortages, significant regulatory delays on new wireless or AI features, or an unexpected pivot in product strategy, though none of these factors currently appear in credible reporting or filings.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
音量
$173,244終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s long-established annual iPhone release cadence drives the 98.5% market-implied probability that the iPhone 18 will launch in 2026. The company has followed this pattern for more than a decade, aligning hardware iterations, large language model integrations, and supply chain ramps to a September window. Trader consensus treats any deviation as highly improbable absent major disruption. Realistic scenarios that could still shift the outcome include severe component shortages, significant regulatory delays on new wireless or AI features, or an unexpected pivot in product strategy, though none of these factors currently appear in credible reporting or filings.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$173,244終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple’s long-established annual iPhone release cadence drives the 98.5% market-implied probability that the iPhone 18 will launch in 2026. The company has followed this pattern for more than a decade, aligning hardware iterations, large language model integrations, and supply chain ramps to a September window. Trader consensus treats any deviation as highly improbable absent major disruption. Realistic scenarios that could still shift the outcome include severe component shortages, significant regulatory delays on new wireless or AI features, or an unexpected pivot in product strategy, though none of these factors currently appear in credible reporting or filings.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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