**US strategy has emphasized sustained airstrikes, naval pressure on the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions, and limited targeted operations rather than committing ground forces to mainland Iran.** Since the February 28, 2026, launch of joint US-Israeli strikes (Operation Epic Fury) that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and damaged military infrastructure, the conflict has featured Iranian missile and drone retaliation, shipping attacks, and periodic breakdowns of June cease-fire arrangements. Renewed exchanges continued into early September 2026, including US strikes on Larak Island and Iranian responses against US positions in Jordan. **Analysts and military assessments highlight major structural barriers to a large-scale US ground invasion before 2027.** These include the need for hundreds of thousands of troops, extreme logistical and seasonal challenges, high projected casualties, Iranian ground-force mobilization, risks of prolonged occupation or regional escalation, and lack of congressional authorization. Public statements from the Trump administration have stressed air and maritime dominance, economic isolation, and options such as island seizures or special operations over broad territorial incursions. Recent tit-for-tat actions and diplomatic maneuvering reflect efforts to degrade Iranian capabilities and reopen shipping lanes without crossing into full-scale invasion. **Trader consensus reflected in the 84.5% probability on “No” aligns with this pattern of contained escalation and preference for non-ground options amid ongoing but non-decisive hostilities.**