Recent diplomatic progress, including the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum signed by U.S. and Iranian officials, has anchored trader expectations against a U.S. ground invasion before 2027. The agreement outlined a mutual halt to military operations, sanctions relief measures, a $300 billion investment framework, and renewed nuclear negotiations following earlier 2026 airstrikes and a temporary ceasefire. Ongoing technical talks through late June have sustained this de-escalation trajectory, with no verified preparations for territorial control operations. Historical patterns of U.S. Middle East engagements and the current emphasis on economic incentives over sustained combat further support the 79.5% implied probability for no invasion, though flare-ups in the Strait of Hormuz could test the fragile framework before year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$54,760,176 Vol.
$54,760,176 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$54,760,176 Vol.
$54,760,176 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Recent diplomatic progress, including the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum signed by U.S. and Iranian officials, has anchored trader expectations against a U.S. ground invasion before 2027. The agreement outlined a mutual halt to military operations, sanctions relief measures, a $300 billion investment framework, and renewed nuclear negotiations following earlier 2026 airstrikes and a temporary ceasefire. Ongoing technical talks through late June have sustained this de-escalation trajectory, with no verified preparations for territorial control operations. Historical patterns of U.S. Middle East engagements and the current emphasis on economic incentives over sustained combat further support the 79.5% implied probability for no invasion, though flare-ups in the Strait of Hormuz could test the fragile framework before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
マーケット開始日： Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ET
音量
$54,760,176終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Recent diplomatic progress, including the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum signed by U.S. and Iranian officials, has anchored trader expectations against a U.S. ground invasion before 2027. The agreement outlined a mutual halt to military operations, sanctions relief measures, a $300 billion investment framework, and renewed nuclear negotiations following earlier 2026 airstrikes and a temporary ceasefire. Ongoing technical talks through late June have sustained this de-escalation trajectory, with no verified preparations for territorial control operations. Historical patterns of U.S. Middle East engagements and the current emphasis on economic incentives over sustained combat further support the 79.5% implied probability for no invasion, though flare-ups in the Strait of Hormuz could test the fragile framework before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
音量
$54,760,176終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent diplomatic progress, including the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum signed by U.S. and Iranian officials, has anchored trader expectations against a U.S. ground invasion before 2027. The agreement outlined a mutual halt to military operations, sanctions relief measures, a $300 billion investment framework, and renewed nuclear negotiations following earlier 2026 airstrikes and a temporary ceasefire. Ongoing technical talks through late June have sustained this de-escalation trajectory, with no verified preparations for territorial control operations. Historical patterns of U.S. Middle East engagements and the current emphasis on economic incentives over sustained combat further support the 79.5% implied probability for no invasion, though flare-ups in the Strait of Hormuz could test the fragile framework before year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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