Recent diplomatic progress on reopening the Strait of Hormuz through Oman-mediated talks, combined with U.S. and Iranian statements signaling expectations of a near-term deal, has reinforced trader views that large-scale ground operations remain unlikely before 2027. Limited U.S. airstrikes and a naval blockade since early 2026 have targeted Iranian military and maritime capabilities without crossing into invasion-level commitments, while a June memorandum of understanding and subsequent ceasefire framework have channeled tensions toward negotiations rather than escalation. Congressional oversight debates under the War Powers Resolution and the absence of administration signals favoring ground forces further align with the 83.5% implied probability on no invasion.