Recent U.S.-Iran diplomacy, centered on the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding and follow-on technical talks mediated by Pakistan and Qatar, has prioritized sanctions relief, Strait of Hormuz navigation, and nuclear constraints after earlier 2026 airstrikes and a temporary ceasefire. These steps, along with reported pauses in strikes and commitments to economic frameworks instead of territorial operations, support trader consensus against a U.S. ground invasion before December 31, 2026. American military efforts have relied primarily on air and naval capabilities rather than large-scale troop deployments, reflecting logistical and strategic barriers to full-scale invasion. Ongoing negotiations through August lower near-term escalation risks, though diplomatic setbacks or renewed tensions could still shift assessments.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$54,760,176 Vol.
$54,760,176 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$54,760,176 Vol.
$54,760,176 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Recent U.S.-Iran diplomacy, centered on the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding and follow-on technical talks mediated by Pakistan and Qatar, has prioritized sanctions relief, Strait of Hormuz navigation, and nuclear constraints after earlier 2026 airstrikes and a temporary ceasefire. These steps, along with reported pauses in strikes and commitments to economic frameworks instead of territorial operations, support trader consensus against a U.S. ground invasion before December 31, 2026. American military efforts have relied primarily on air and naval capabilities rather than large-scale troop deployments, reflecting logistical and strategic barriers to full-scale invasion. Ongoing negotiations through August lower near-term escalation risks, though diplomatic setbacks or renewed tensions could still shift assessments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
マーケット開始日： Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ET
音量
$54,760,176終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Recent U.S.-Iran diplomacy, centered on the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding and follow-on technical talks mediated by Pakistan and Qatar, has prioritized sanctions relief, Strait of Hormuz navigation, and nuclear constraints after earlier 2026 airstrikes and a temporary ceasefire. These steps, along with reported pauses in strikes and commitments to economic frameworks instead of territorial operations, support trader consensus against a U.S. ground invasion before December 31, 2026. American military efforts have relied primarily on air and naval capabilities rather than large-scale troop deployments, reflecting logistical and strategic barriers to full-scale invasion. Ongoing negotiations through August lower near-term escalation risks, though diplomatic setbacks or renewed tensions could still shift assessments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
音量
$54,760,176終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S.-Iran diplomacy, centered on the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding and follow-on technical talks mediated by Pakistan and Qatar, has prioritized sanctions relief, Strait of Hormuz navigation, and nuclear constraints after earlier 2026 airstrikes and a temporary ceasefire. These steps, along with reported pauses in strikes and commitments to economic frameworks instead of territorial operations, support trader consensus against a U.S. ground invasion before December 31, 2026. American military efforts have relied primarily on air and naval capabilities rather than large-scale troop deployments, reflecting logistical and strategic barriers to full-scale invasion. Ongoing negotiations through August lower near-term escalation risks, though diplomatic setbacks or renewed tensions could still shift assessments.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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