Canada's Liberal government, led by Prime Minister Mark Carney, secured a parliamentary majority through by-elections and floor-crossings following the April 2025 election, eliminating the immediate pressures that previously fueled snap-election speculation. With a stable majority, the administration faces no confidence risks or procedural incentives to dissolve Parliament before the fixed-date election scheduled for October 2029. Trader consensus at 99.5% against an election call by June 30 reflects this structural shift and the absence of recent catalysts such as legislative defeats, major scandals, or external crises. A sudden reversal of the majority or unforeseen events could theoretically alter the timeline, though none appear imminent within the narrow window.