Trader consensus reflects near-certainty at 98.2% for no arrest of Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei, driven by the complete absence of any credible reports, indictments, charges, or investigations from the DOJ, FBI, or other law enforcement agencies. Recent tensions stem from civil disputes with the Trump administration and Pentagon over AI safeguards—Anthropic refused unrestricted military access to Claude, prompting a supply chain risk designation and a federal lawsuit filed by the company in March 2026—remain confined to policy and contractual realms, with no criminal allegations against Amodei personally. His public statements, leaked memos, and ongoing business activities show no escalation to prosecutable offenses. Realistic shifts could arise from unforeseen evidence of fraud, national security violations, or executive actions like special counsel probes, though historical patterns for tech CEOs in similar policy spats favor resolution without arrests.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$149,193 거래량
$149,193 거래량
2026.06.30
예
$149,193 거래량
$149,193 거래량
2026.06.30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Dario Amodei is arrested or detained by law enforcement by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus reflects near-certainty at 98.2% for no arrest of Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei, driven by the complete absence of any credible reports, indictments, charges, or investigations from the DOJ, FBI, or other law enforcement agencies. Recent tensions stem from civil disputes with the Trump administration and Pentagon over AI safeguards—Anthropic refused unrestricted military access to Claude, prompting a supply chain risk designation and a federal lawsuit filed by the company in March 2026—remain confined to policy and contractual realms, with no criminal allegations against Amodei personally. His public statements, leaked memos, and ongoing business activities show no escalation to prosecutable offenses. Realistic shifts could arise from unforeseen evidence of fraud, national security violations, or executive actions like special counsel probes, though historical patterns for tech CEOs in similar policy spats favor resolution without arrests.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Dario Amodei is arrested or detained by law enforcement by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
마켓 개설일: Feb 27, 2026, 6:05 PM ET
거래량
$149,193종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Feb 27, 2026, 6:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Dario Amodei is arrested or detained by law enforcement by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus reflects near-certainty at 98.2% for no arrest of Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei, driven by the complete absence of any credible reports, indictments, charges, or investigations from the DOJ, FBI, or other law enforcement agencies. Recent tensions stem from civil disputes with the Trump administration and Pentagon over AI safeguards—Anthropic refused unrestricted military access to Claude, prompting a supply chain risk designation and a federal lawsuit filed by the company in March 2026—remain confined to policy and contractual realms, with no criminal allegations against Amodei personally. His public statements, leaked memos, and ongoing business activities show no escalation to prosecutable offenses. Realistic shifts could arise from unforeseen evidence of fraud, national security violations, or executive actions like special counsel probes, though historical patterns for tech CEOs in similar policy spats favor resolution without arrests.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Dario Amodei is arrested or detained by law enforcement by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
거래량
$149,193종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Feb 27, 2026, 6:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects near-certainty at 98.2% for no arrest of Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei, driven by the complete absence of any credible reports, indictments, charges, or investigations from the DOJ, FBI, or other law enforcement agencies. Recent tensions stem from civil disputes with the Trump administration and Pentagon over AI safeguards—Anthropic refused unrestricted military access to Claude, prompting a supply chain risk designation and a federal lawsuit filed by the company in March 2026—remain confined to policy and contractual realms, with no criminal allegations against Amodei personally. His public statements, leaked memos, and ongoing business activities show no escalation to prosecutable offenses. Realistic shifts could arise from unforeseen evidence of fraud, national security violations, or executive actions like special counsel probes, though historical patterns for tech CEOs in similar policy spats favor resolution without arrests.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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