Incumbent Democrat Greg Stanton holds a commanding position in Arizona's 4th Congressional District, rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report with a D+4 partisan lean, driving trader consensus to 86.5% for a Democratic win. Stanton's substantial fundraising edge—over $1.8 million cash on hand as of late March—dwarfs challenger Kai Newkirk's resources in the July 21 Democratic primary, while his 2024 reelection margin of 52.7% underscores incumbency advantages in this Phoenix-area seat. The fragmented Republican primary features four contenders, including well-funded Zuhdi Jasser, but lacks a standout to overcome the district's Democratic tilt, with ratings unchanged post-filing deadline on March 23. Absent polling shifts or scandals, the general election on November 3 favors the Democratic nominee.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$10,554 거래량
$10,554 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
87%
공화당
12%
$10,554 거래량
$10,554 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
$9,216 거래량
87%
공화당
$1,338 거래량
12%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Greg Stanton holds a commanding position in Arizona's 4th Congressional District, rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report with a D+4 partisan lean, driving trader consensus to 86.5% for a Democratic win. Stanton's substantial fundraising edge—over $1.8 million cash on hand as of late March—dwarfs challenger Kai Newkirk's resources in the July 21 Democratic primary, while his 2024 reelection margin of 52.7% underscores incumbency advantages in this Phoenix-area seat. The fragmented Republican primary features four contenders, including well-funded Zuhdi Jasser, but lacks a standout to overcome the district's Democratic tilt, with ratings unchanged post-filing deadline on March 23. Absent polling shifts or scandals, the general election on November 3 favors the Democratic nominee.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
거래량
$10,554종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Greg Stanton holds a commanding position in Arizona's 4th Congressional District, rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report with a D+4 partisan lean, driving trader consensus to 86.5% for a Democratic win. Stanton's substantial fundraising edge—over $1.8 million cash on hand as of late March—dwarfs challenger Kai Newkirk's resources in the July 21 Democratic primary, while his 2024 reelection margin of 52.7% underscores incumbency advantages in this Phoenix-area seat. The fragmented Republican primary features four contenders, including well-funded Zuhdi Jasser, but lacks a standout to overcome the district's Democratic tilt, with ratings unchanged post-filing deadline on March 23. Absent polling shifts or scandals, the general election on November 3 favors the Democratic nominee.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$10,554종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Greg Stanton holds a commanding position in Arizona's 4th Congressional District, rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report with a D+4 partisan lean, driving trader consensus to 86.5% for a Democratic win. Stanton's substantial fundraising edge—over $1.8 million cash on hand as of late March—dwarfs challenger Kai Newkirk's resources in the July 21 Democratic primary, while his 2024 reelection margin of 52.7% underscores incumbency advantages in this Phoenix-area seat. The fragmented Republican primary features four contenders, including well-funded Zuhdi Jasser, but lacks a standout to overcome the district's Democratic tilt, with ratings unchanged post-filing deadline on March 23. Absent polling shifts or scandals, the general election on November 3 favors the Democratic nominee.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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