The 43rd Congressional District of California maintains a pronounced Democratic tilt, reflected in its strong partisan lean and consistent support for the party in recent cycles. Longtime incumbent Maxine Waters anchors the field in the June 2 primary against limited Democratic challengers and Republican candidate Cristian Morales, with forecasters rating the seat solid Democratic ahead of the November general election. This positioning drives the current trader consensus, which assigns the Democratic Party a commanding lead. A Republican upset would require either an unforeseen primary disruption, significant health or retirement developments involving the incumbent, or a broader national political realignment strong enough to overcome the district’s structural advantages.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$22,373 거래량
$22,373 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
95%
공화당
6%
$22,373 거래량
$22,373 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
$8,325 거래량
95%
공화당
$14,048 거래량
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-43 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The 43rd Congressional District of California maintains a pronounced Democratic tilt, reflected in its strong partisan lean and consistent support for the party in recent cycles. Longtime incumbent Maxine Waters anchors the field in the June 2 primary against limited Democratic challengers and Republican candidate Cristian Morales, with forecasters rating the seat solid Democratic ahead of the November general election. This positioning drives the current trader consensus, which assigns the Democratic Party a commanding lead. A Republican upset would require either an unforeseen primary disruption, significant health or retirement developments involving the incumbent, or a broader national political realignment strong enough to overcome the district’s structural advantages.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-43 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 10:29 AM ET
거래량
$22,373종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 10:29 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-43 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The 43rd Congressional District of California maintains a pronounced Democratic tilt, reflected in its strong partisan lean and consistent support for the party in recent cycles. Longtime incumbent Maxine Waters anchors the field in the June 2 primary against limited Democratic challengers and Republican candidate Cristian Morales, with forecasters rating the seat solid Democratic ahead of the November general election. This positioning drives the current trader consensus, which assigns the Democratic Party a commanding lead. A Republican upset would require either an unforeseen primary disruption, significant health or retirement developments involving the incumbent, or a broader national political realignment strong enough to overcome the district’s structural advantages.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-43 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$22,373종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 10:29 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 43rd Congressional District of California maintains a pronounced Democratic tilt, reflected in its strong partisan lean and consistent support for the party in recent cycles. Longtime incumbent Maxine Waters anchors the field in the June 2 primary against limited Democratic challengers and Republican candidate Cristian Morales, with forecasters rating the seat solid Democratic ahead of the November general election. This positioning drives the current trader consensus, which assigns the Democratic Party a commanding lead. A Republican upset would require either an unforeseen primary disruption, significant health or retirement developments involving the incumbent, or a broader national political realignment strong enough to overcome the district’s structural advantages.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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