China's official 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5–5%, set during the March Two Sessions, anchors trader consensus at 68% probability for the 4.0–5.0% range, aligning with economist forecasts like Reuters' 4.6% median and Goldman Sachs' 4.8% projection. Q1 2026 GDP expanded 5.0% year-on-year—beating 4.8% expectations and accelerating from Q4 2025's 4.5%—bolstering momentum via robust manufacturing PMI readings and exports, though tempered by persistent property sector weakness and global trade risks. A 4% budget deficit supports stimulus, with 29% odds on 5.0–6.0% reflecting Q1 upside potential amid policy measures, while lower ranges see slim probabilities due to resilient industrial output and fiscal backing.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트4.0–5.0% 68%
5.0–6.0% 29.1%
6.0-7.0% 1.2%
1.0% 미만 1.1%
$261,388 거래량
$261,388 거래량
2026.01.31
1.0% 미만
1%
1.0–2.0%
1%
2.0–3.0%
1%
3.0–4.0%
1%
4.0–5.0%
68%
5.0–6.0%
29%
6.0-7.0%
1%
7.0–8.0%
<1%
8.0~9.0%
1%
9.0%+
<1%
4.0–5.0% 68%
5.0–6.0% 29.1%
6.0-7.0% 1.2%
1.0% 미만 1.1%
$261,388 거래량
$261,388 거래량
2026.01.31
1.0% 미만
$23,015 거래량
1%
1.0–2.0%
$27,522 거래량
1%
2.0–3.0%
$6,756 거래량
1%
3.0–4.0%
$10,581 거래량
1%
4.0–5.0%
$45,267 거래량
68%
5.0–6.0%
$22,325 거래량
29%
6.0-7.0%
$19,775 거래량
1%
7.0–8.0%
$29,918 거래량
<1%
8.0~9.0%
$7,080 거래량
1%
9.0%+
$69,148 거래량
<1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China's official 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5–5%, set during the March Two Sessions, anchors trader consensus at 68% probability for the 4.0–5.0% range, aligning with economist forecasts like Reuters' 4.6% median and Goldman Sachs' 4.8% projection. Q1 2026 GDP expanded 5.0% year-on-year—beating 4.8% expectations and accelerating from Q4 2025's 4.5%—bolstering momentum via robust manufacturing PMI readings and exports, though tempered by persistent property sector weakness and global trade risks. A 4% budget deficit supports stimulus, with 29% odds on 5.0–6.0% reflecting Q1 upside potential amid policy measures, while lower ranges see slim probabilities due to resilient industrial output and fiscal backing.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
마켓 개설일: Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
거래량
$261,388종료일
2026.01.31마켓 개설일
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China's official 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5–5%, set during the March Two Sessions, anchors trader consensus at 68% probability for the 4.0–5.0% range, aligning with economist forecasts like Reuters' 4.6% median and Goldman Sachs' 4.8% projection. Q1 2026 GDP expanded 5.0% year-on-year—beating 4.8% expectations and accelerating from Q4 2025's 4.5%—bolstering momentum via robust manufacturing PMI readings and exports, though tempered by persistent property sector weakness and global trade risks. A 4% budget deficit supports stimulus, with 29% odds on 5.0–6.0% reflecting Q1 upside potential amid policy measures, while lower ranges see slim probabilities due to resilient industrial output and fiscal backing.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
거래량
$261,388종료일
2026.01.31마켓 개설일
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...China's official 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5–5%, set during the March Two Sessions, anchors trader consensus at 68% probability for the 4.0–5.0% range, aligning with economist forecasts like Reuters' 4.6% median and Goldman Sachs' 4.8% projection. Q1 2026 GDP expanded 5.0% year-on-year—beating 4.8% expectations and accelerating from Q4 2025's 4.5%—bolstering momentum via robust manufacturing PMI readings and exports, though tempered by persistent property sector weakness and global trade risks. A 4% budget deficit supports stimulus, with 29% odds on 5.0–6.0% reflecting Q1 upside potential amid policy measures, while lower ranges see slim probabilities due to resilient industrial output and fiscal backing.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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