Preliminary NOAA/NWS surveys confirm 42 tornadoes in the US through April 16, 2026—below the 1991–2020 monthly average of 182—following clustered outbreaks like the April 13–15 event that produced an EF3 in Wisconsin, multiple EF2s in Kansas, and EF1s across the Midwest, amid persistent wind shear and Gulf moisture fueling convective available potential energy (CAPE). Trader consensus favors 170–199 tornadoes at 34% implied probability, edging 140–169 (25%) and higher bins like 320–350 (24%), reflecting uncertainty in the forecast wave train of troughs driving supercell potential through month-end per Storm Prediction Center outlooks. Final counts from the National Centers for Environmental Information could adjust upward as surveys finalize, with climatological peaks often late-April in Plains and Midwest.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트4월에 미국에서 얼마나 많은 토네이도가 발생했나요?
4월에 미국에서 얼마나 많은 토네이도가 발생했나요?
170–199 37%
140~169 28%
290–319 16%
200–229 11%
$38,439 거래량
$38,439 거래량
2026.05.10
<140
8%
140~169
30%
170–199
37%
200–229
11%
230~259
5%
260~289
22%
290–319
13%
320~350
23%
350+
6%
170–199 37%
140~169 28%
290–319 16%
200–229 11%
$38,439 거래량
$38,439 거래량
2026.05.10
<140
$8,916 거래량
8%
140~169
$6,632 거래량
30%
170–199
$427 거래량
37%
200–229
$95 거래량
11%
230~259
$92 거래량
5%
260~289
$128 거래량
22%
290–319
$258 거래량
13%
320~350
$154 거래량
23%
350+
$21,736 거래량
6%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on May 8, 2026, at 5:00 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Preliminary NOAA/NWS surveys confirm 42 tornadoes in the US through April 16, 2026—below the 1991–2020 monthly average of 182—following clustered outbreaks like the April 13–15 event that produced an EF3 in Wisconsin, multiple EF2s in Kansas, and EF1s across the Midwest, amid persistent wind shear and Gulf moisture fueling convective available potential energy (CAPE). Trader consensus favors 170–199 tornadoes at 34% implied probability, edging 140–169 (25%) and higher bins like 320–350 (24%), reflecting uncertainty in the forecast wave train of troughs driving supercell potential through month-end per Storm Prediction Center outlooks. Final counts from the National Centers for Environmental Information could adjust upward as surveys finalize, with climatological peaks often late-April in Plains and Midwest.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on May 8, 2026, at 5:00 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on May 8, 2026, at 5:00 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
마켓 개설일: Mar 24, 2026, 6:38 PM ET
거래량
$38,439종료일
2026.05.10마켓 개설일
Mar 24, 2026, 6:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on May 8, 2026, at 5:00 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Preliminary NOAA/NWS surveys confirm 42 tornadoes in the US through April 16, 2026—below the 1991–2020 monthly average of 182—following clustered outbreaks like the April 13–15 event that produced an EF3 in Wisconsin, multiple EF2s in Kansas, and EF1s across the Midwest, amid persistent wind shear and Gulf moisture fueling convective available potential energy (CAPE). Trader consensus favors 170–199 tornadoes at 34% implied probability, edging 140–169 (25%) and higher bins like 320–350 (24%), reflecting uncertainty in the forecast wave train of troughs driving supercell potential through month-end per Storm Prediction Center outlooks. Final counts from the National Centers for Environmental Information could adjust upward as surveys finalize, with climatological peaks often late-April in Plains and Midwest.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on May 8, 2026, at 5:00 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on May 8, 2026, at 5:00 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
거래량
$38,439종료일
2026.05.10마켓 개설일
Mar 24, 2026, 6:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Preliminary NOAA/NWS surveys confirm 42 tornadoes in the US through April 16, 2026—below the 1991–2020 monthly average of 182—following clustered outbreaks like the April 13–15 event that produced an EF3 in Wisconsin, multiple EF2s in Kansas, and EF1s across the Midwest, amid persistent wind shear and Gulf moisture fueling convective available potential energy (CAPE). Trader consensus favors 170–199 tornadoes at 34% implied probability, edging 140–169 (25%) and higher bins like 320–350 (24%), reflecting uncertainty in the forecast wave train of troughs driving supercell potential through month-end per Storm Prediction Center outlooks. Final counts from the National Centers for Environmental Information could adjust upward as surveys finalize, with climatological peaks often late-April in Plains and Midwest.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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