Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 92.5% implied probability for the IL-09 House seat, reflecting the district's solid Democratic rating per Cook Political Report and strong partisan lean, with a Cook PVI historically exceeding D+19 in this Chicago North Side and northern suburbs stronghold. Longtime Rep. Jan Schakowsky's 2025 retirement prompted a competitive March 17, 2026 Democratic primary won decisively by Evanston Mayor Daniel Biss over a crowded field including Kat Abughazaleh and Laura Fine, positioning a well-funded local leader against Republican nominee John Elleson, who advanced from an uncompetitive GOP primary amid historically lopsided losses exceeding 30 points. Absent a major scandal, legal challenge, or national Republican wave flipping turnout in this safe blue district, the odds remain firmly entrenched ahead of the November 3 general election.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$14,922 거래량
$14,922 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
93%
공화당
7%
$14,922 거래량
$14,922 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
$9,715 거래량
93%
공화당
$5,207 거래량
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 92.5% implied probability for the IL-09 House seat, reflecting the district's solid Democratic rating per Cook Political Report and strong partisan lean, with a Cook PVI historically exceeding D+19 in this Chicago North Side and northern suburbs stronghold. Longtime Rep. Jan Schakowsky's 2025 retirement prompted a competitive March 17, 2026 Democratic primary won decisively by Evanston Mayor Daniel Biss over a crowded field including Kat Abughazaleh and Laura Fine, positioning a well-funded local leader against Republican nominee John Elleson, who advanced from an uncompetitive GOP primary amid historically lopsided losses exceeding 30 points. Absent a major scandal, legal challenge, or national Republican wave flipping turnout in this safe blue district, the odds remain firmly entrenched ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
거래량
$14,922종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 92.5% implied probability for the IL-09 House seat, reflecting the district's solid Democratic rating per Cook Political Report and strong partisan lean, with a Cook PVI historically exceeding D+19 in this Chicago North Side and northern suburbs stronghold. Longtime Rep. Jan Schakowsky's 2025 retirement prompted a competitive March 17, 2026 Democratic primary won decisively by Evanston Mayor Daniel Biss over a crowded field including Kat Abughazaleh and Laura Fine, positioning a well-funded local leader against Republican nominee John Elleson, who advanced from an uncompetitive GOP primary amid historically lopsided losses exceeding 30 points. Absent a major scandal, legal challenge, or national Republican wave flipping turnout in this safe blue district, the odds remain firmly entrenched ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$14,922종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 92.5% implied probability for the IL-09 House seat, reflecting the district's solid Democratic rating per Cook Political Report and strong partisan lean, with a Cook PVI historically exceeding D+19 in this Chicago North Side and northern suburbs stronghold. Longtime Rep. Jan Schakowsky's 2025 retirement prompted a competitive March 17, 2026 Democratic primary won decisively by Evanston Mayor Daniel Biss over a crowded field including Kat Abughazaleh and Laura Fine, positioning a well-funded local leader against Republican nominee John Elleson, who advanced from an uncompetitive GOP primary amid historically lopsided losses exceeding 30 points. Absent a major scandal, legal challenge, or national Republican wave flipping turnout in this safe blue district, the odds remain firmly entrenched ahead of the November 3 general election.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문