Incumbent Republican Mike Bost secured his party's nomination unopposed in the March 17, 2026, primary for Illinois' 12th Congressional District, a solidly Republican seat in southern Illinois that he has held since 2015 with comfortable margins. This lack of intra-party challenge underscores GOP unity and Bost's strong incumbency advantage in a rural, conservative district rated Safe Republican by forecasters like Cook Political Report. Democrat Julie Fortier, also unopposed in her primary, faces steep hurdles amid limited fundraising and name recognition. Trader consensus at 91.5% for Republicans reflects these structural edges and historical base rates for incumbents in similar districts. Late-breaking scandals, health issues, or a massive Democratic midterm wave could shift odds, though such disruptions remain low-probability ahead of the November 3 general election.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$10,084 거래량
$10,084 거래량
2026.11.03
공화당
92%
민주당
8%
$10,084 거래량
$10,084 거래량
2026.11.03
공화당
$5,668 거래량
92%
민주당
$4,416 거래량
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mike Bost secured his party's nomination unopposed in the March 17, 2026, primary for Illinois' 12th Congressional District, a solidly Republican seat in southern Illinois that he has held since 2015 with comfortable margins. This lack of intra-party challenge underscores GOP unity and Bost's strong incumbency advantage in a rural, conservative district rated Safe Republican by forecasters like Cook Political Report. Democrat Julie Fortier, also unopposed in her primary, faces steep hurdles amid limited fundraising and name recognition. Trader consensus at 91.5% for Republicans reflects these structural edges and historical base rates for incumbents in similar districts. Late-breaking scandals, health issues, or a massive Democratic midterm wave could shift odds, though such disruptions remain low-probability ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
거래량
$10,084종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mike Bost secured his party's nomination unopposed in the March 17, 2026, primary for Illinois' 12th Congressional District, a solidly Republican seat in southern Illinois that he has held since 2015 with comfortable margins. This lack of intra-party challenge underscores GOP unity and Bost's strong incumbency advantage in a rural, conservative district rated Safe Republican by forecasters like Cook Political Report. Democrat Julie Fortier, also unopposed in her primary, faces steep hurdles amid limited fundraising and name recognition. Trader consensus at 91.5% for Republicans reflects these structural edges and historical base rates for incumbents in similar districts. Late-breaking scandals, health issues, or a massive Democratic midterm wave could shift odds, though such disruptions remain low-probability ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$10,084종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Mike Bost secured his party's nomination unopposed in the March 17, 2026, primary for Illinois' 12th Congressional District, a solidly Republican seat in southern Illinois that he has held since 2015 with comfortable margins. This lack of intra-party challenge underscores GOP unity and Bost's strong incumbency advantage in a rural, conservative district rated Safe Republican by forecasters like Cook Political Report. Democrat Julie Fortier, also unopposed in her primary, faces steep hurdles amid limited fundraising and name recognition. Trader consensus at 91.5% for Republicans reflects these structural edges and historical base rates for incumbents in similar districts. Late-breaking scandals, health issues, or a massive Democratic midterm wave could shift odds, though such disruptions remain low-probability ahead of the November 3 general election.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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