Despite recent U.S. threats under President Trump to curtail NATO involvement after 2027 unless Europe assumes most conventional defense roles—from intelligence to missiles—traders price full alliance dissolution at just 5.5%, reflecting institutional barriers and transatlantic resilience. The 2025 Hague Summit secured pledges for 5% GDP defense spending by many allies, bolstering unity amid Russia's ongoing aggression. Congressional restrictions require two-thirds Senate approval or new legislation for U.S. exit, while Article 13 mandates one-year notice per member, with no nation signaling departure. European contingency planning for a U.S.-less NATO underscores adaptation over collapse, as affirmed in April statements from Secretary-General Rutte urging Hormuz pledges. Late-breaking diplomacy or escalations could shift odds, but current consensus sees endurance through 2026.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$72,358 거래량
$72,358 거래량
2026.12.31
예
$72,358 거래량
$72,358 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Despite recent U.S. threats under President Trump to curtail NATO involvement after 2027 unless Europe assumes most conventional defense roles—from intelligence to missiles—traders price full alliance dissolution at just 5.5%, reflecting institutional barriers and transatlantic resilience. The 2025 Hague Summit secured pledges for 5% GDP defense spending by many allies, bolstering unity amid Russia's ongoing aggression. Congressional restrictions require two-thirds Senate approval or new legislation for U.S. exit, while Article 13 mandates one-year notice per member, with no nation signaling departure. European contingency planning for a U.S.-less NATO underscores adaptation over collapse, as affirmed in April statements from Secretary-General Rutte urging Hormuz pledges. Late-breaking diplomacy or escalations could shift odds, but current consensus sees endurance through 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
마켓 개설일: Jan 8, 2026, 1:09 PM ET
거래량
$72,358종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Jan 8, 2026, 1:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Despite recent U.S. threats under President Trump to curtail NATO involvement after 2027 unless Europe assumes most conventional defense roles—from intelligence to missiles—traders price full alliance dissolution at just 5.5%, reflecting institutional barriers and transatlantic resilience. The 2025 Hague Summit secured pledges for 5% GDP defense spending by many allies, bolstering unity amid Russia's ongoing aggression. Congressional restrictions require two-thirds Senate approval or new legislation for U.S. exit, while Article 13 mandates one-year notice per member, with no nation signaling departure. European contingency planning for a U.S.-less NATO underscores adaptation over collapse, as affirmed in April statements from Secretary-General Rutte urging Hormuz pledges. Late-breaking diplomacy or escalations could shift odds, but current consensus sees endurance through 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
거래량
$72,358종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Jan 8, 2026, 1:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Despite recent U.S. threats under President Trump to curtail NATO involvement after 2027 unless Europe assumes most conventional defense roles—from intelligence to missiles—traders price full alliance dissolution at just 5.5%, reflecting institutional barriers and transatlantic resilience. The 2025 Hague Summit secured pledges for 5% GDP defense spending by many allies, bolstering unity amid Russia's ongoing aggression. Congressional restrictions require two-thirds Senate approval or new legislation for U.S. exit, while Article 13 mandates one-year notice per member, with no nation signaling departure. European contingency planning for a U.S.-less NATO underscores adaptation over collapse, as affirmed in April statements from Secretary-General Rutte urging Hormuz pledges. Late-breaking diplomacy or escalations could shift odds, but current consensus sees endurance through 2026.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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