Incumbent Democrat Frank Pallone Jr., seeking a 19th term in solidly Democratic NJ-06 (Cook PVI D+5), dominates trader consensus at 90.5% implied probability following the March 23 filing deadline and April 2 certification of primary nominees, which confirmed challengers Katie Bansil and John Hsu in the June 2 Democratic primary—neither posing serious threats given Pallone's $3.4 million cash-on-hand and 84% 2024 primary win—and lone Republican Hillary Herzig, a low-profile former USCIS worker, in the GOP contest. Historical general election margins of 15-22 points since 2020 underscore the district's reliability for Democrats, with no polling yet available. GOP odds at 9.5% reflect slim upset potential from a national Republican wave, Pallone scandal, or health issues, though fundamentals favor the Democratic nominee ahead of the November 3 general election.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
91%
Republican Party
10%
신규
신규
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
$1,401 거래량
91%
Republican Party
$1,330 거래량
10%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Frank Pallone Jr., seeking a 19th term in solidly Democratic NJ-06 (Cook PVI D+5), dominates trader consensus at 90.5% implied probability following the March 23 filing deadline and April 2 certification of primary nominees, which confirmed challengers Katie Bansil and John Hsu in the June 2 Democratic primary—neither posing serious threats given Pallone's $3.4 million cash-on-hand and 84% 2024 primary win—and lone Republican Hillary Herzig, a low-profile former USCIS worker, in the GOP contest. Historical general election margins of 15-22 points since 2020 underscore the district's reliability for Democrats, with no polling yet available. GOP odds at 9.5% reflect slim upset potential from a national Republican wave, Pallone scandal, or health issues, though fundamentals favor the Democratic nominee ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
거래량
$2,732종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Frank Pallone Jr., seeking a 19th term in solidly Democratic NJ-06 (Cook PVI D+5), dominates trader consensus at 90.5% implied probability following the March 23 filing deadline and April 2 certification of primary nominees, which confirmed challengers Katie Bansil and John Hsu in the June 2 Democratic primary—neither posing serious threats given Pallone's $3.4 million cash-on-hand and 84% 2024 primary win—and lone Republican Hillary Herzig, a low-profile former USCIS worker, in the GOP contest. Historical general election margins of 15-22 points since 2020 underscore the district's reliability for Democrats, with no polling yet available. GOP odds at 9.5% reflect slim upset potential from a national Republican wave, Pallone scandal, or health issues, though fundamentals favor the Democratic nominee ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$2,732종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Frank Pallone Jr., seeking a 19th term in solidly Democratic NJ-06 (Cook PVI D+5), dominates trader consensus at 90.5% implied probability following the March 23 filing deadline and April 2 certification of primary nominees, which confirmed challengers Katie Bansil and John Hsu in the June 2 Democratic primary—neither posing serious threats given Pallone's $3.4 million cash-on-hand and 84% 2024 primary win—and lone Republican Hillary Herzig, a low-profile former USCIS worker, in the GOP contest. Historical general election margins of 15-22 points since 2020 underscore the district's reliability for Democrats, with no polling yet available. GOP odds at 9.5% reflect slim upset potential from a national Republican wave, Pallone scandal, or health issues, though fundamentals favor the Democratic nominee ahead of the November 3 general election.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문