House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, the Democratic incumbent in NY-08, commands trader consensus at 92.5% implied probability for reelection, driven by the district's solid Democratic lean (Cook PVI D+24) and his unchallenged path after progressive challenger Chi Ossé dropped his primary bid in December 2025. No Republican candidate has emerged for the June 23 closed primaries, underscoring the seat's historical safety with Jeffries' large past margins in urban Brooklyn and Queens. Absent recent catalysts like scandals or national waves, odds reflect low upset risk; realistic shifts would require a major Jeffries controversy, surprise GOP heavyweight nominee, or extraordinary midterm turnout dynamics before the November 3 general election.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$18,043 거래량
$18,043 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
93%
공화당
7%
$18,043 거래량
$18,043 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
$10,508 거래량
93%
공화당
$7,535 거래량
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, the Democratic incumbent in NY-08, commands trader consensus at 92.5% implied probability for reelection, driven by the district's solid Democratic lean (Cook PVI D+24) and his unchallenged path after progressive challenger Chi Ossé dropped his primary bid in December 2025. No Republican candidate has emerged for the June 23 closed primaries, underscoring the seat's historical safety with Jeffries' large past margins in urban Brooklyn and Queens. Absent recent catalysts like scandals or national waves, odds reflect low upset risk; realistic shifts would require a major Jeffries controversy, surprise GOP heavyweight nominee, or extraordinary midterm turnout dynamics before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ET
거래량
$18,043종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, the Democratic incumbent in NY-08, commands trader consensus at 92.5% implied probability for reelection, driven by the district's solid Democratic lean (Cook PVI D+24) and his unchallenged path after progressive challenger Chi Ossé dropped his primary bid in December 2025. No Republican candidate has emerged for the June 23 closed primaries, underscoring the seat's historical safety with Jeffries' large past margins in urban Brooklyn and Queens. Absent recent catalysts like scandals or national waves, odds reflect low upset risk; realistic shifts would require a major Jeffries controversy, surprise GOP heavyweight nominee, or extraordinary midterm turnout dynamics before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$18,043종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, the Democratic incumbent in NY-08, commands trader consensus at 92.5% implied probability for reelection, driven by the district's solid Democratic lean (Cook PVI D+24) and his unchallenged path after progressive challenger Chi Ossé dropped his primary bid in December 2025. No Republican candidate has emerged for the June 23 closed primaries, underscoring the seat's historical safety with Jeffries' large past margins in urban Brooklyn and Queens. Absent recent catalysts like scandals or national waves, odds reflect low upset risk; realistic shifts would require a major Jeffries controversy, surprise GOP heavyweight nominee, or extraordinary midterm turnout dynamics before the November 3 general election.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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