Incumbent Democratic Sen. Mark Warner's commanding position in the 2026 Virginia U.S. Senate race, reinforced by his March filing for a fourth term with over 18,000 signatures and recent campaign events highlighting bipartisan appeals, drives trader consensus implying a 92.5% probability of a Democratic win. Democrats' sweeping 2025 victories—Gov. Abigail Spanberger's 15-point gubernatorial triumph and a 64-seat House of Delegates majority—signal strong statewide momentum in this Democratic-leaning battleground, while Republicans face a fragmented primary field including state Sen. John Reeves and others lacking a clear frontrunner. Recent polls show Warner's enduring popularity amid a grueling political climate. Odds could shift with a unified GOP nominee, national midterm dynamics favoring Republicans, Warner health issues, or scandals.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.11.03
Democrat
93%
Republican
7%
신규
신규
2026.11.03
Democrat
$7,507 거래량
93%
Republican
$931 거래량
7%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Virginia U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Sen. Mark Warner's commanding position in the 2026 Virginia U.S. Senate race, reinforced by his March filing for a fourth term with over 18,000 signatures and recent campaign events highlighting bipartisan appeals, drives trader consensus implying a 92.5% probability of a Democratic win. Democrats' sweeping 2025 victories—Gov. Abigail Spanberger's 15-point gubernatorial triumph and a 64-seat House of Delegates majority—signal strong statewide momentum in this Democratic-leaning battleground, while Republicans face a fragmented primary field including state Sen. John Reeves and others lacking a clear frontrunner. Recent polls show Warner's enduring popularity amid a grueling political climate. Odds could shift with a unified GOP nominee, national midterm dynamics favoring Republicans, Warner health issues, or scandals.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Virginia U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
마켓 개설일: Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ET
거래량
$8,438종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Virginia U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Sen. Mark Warner's commanding position in the 2026 Virginia U.S. Senate race, reinforced by his March filing for a fourth term with over 18,000 signatures and recent campaign events highlighting bipartisan appeals, drives trader consensus implying a 92.5% probability of a Democratic win. Democrats' sweeping 2025 victories—Gov. Abigail Spanberger's 15-point gubernatorial triumph and a 64-seat House of Delegates majority—signal strong statewide momentum in this Democratic-leaning battleground, while Republicans face a fragmented primary field including state Sen. John Reeves and others lacking a clear frontrunner. Recent polls show Warner's enduring popularity amid a grueling political climate. Odds could shift with a unified GOP nominee, national midterm dynamics favoring Republicans, Warner health issues, or scandals.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Virginia U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
거래량
$8,438종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democratic Sen. Mark Warner's commanding position in the 2026 Virginia U.S. Senate race, reinforced by his March filing for a fourth term with over 18,000 signatures and recent campaign events highlighting bipartisan appeals, drives trader consensus implying a 92.5% probability of a Democratic win. Democrats' sweeping 2025 victories—Gov. Abigail Spanberger's 15-point gubernatorial triumph and a 64-seat House of Delegates majority—signal strong statewide momentum in this Democratic-leaning battleground, while Republicans face a fragmented primary field including state Sen. John Reeves and others lacking a clear frontrunner. Recent polls show Warner's enduring popularity amid a grueling political climate. Odds could shift with a unified GOP nominee, national midterm dynamics favoring Republicans, Warner health issues, or scandals.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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