Vermont's at-large House seat has remained in Democratic hands since 1990, with incumbent Becca Balint seeking a third term after winning by more than 30 points in 2024. Recent candidate filing deadlines confirmed limited Republican primary options ahead of the August 11 contest, while no major polling shifts or campaign developments have altered the district's structural Democratic advantage. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 93.5 percent implied probability, consistent with historical results and the absence of competitive challengers. A realistic path to an upset would require an unusually strong Republican nominee combined with a significant national swing against Democrats by November 3, though Vermont's consistent voting patterns set a high bar for such an outcome.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$13,103 거래량
$13,103 거래량
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
7%
$13,103 거래량
$13,103 거래량
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
$6,744 거래량
94%
Republican Party
$6,359 거래량
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VT-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Vermont's at-large House seat has remained in Democratic hands since 1990, with incumbent Becca Balint seeking a third term after winning by more than 30 points in 2024. Recent candidate filing deadlines confirmed limited Republican primary options ahead of the August 11 contest, while no major polling shifts or campaign developments have altered the district's structural Democratic advantage. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 93.5 percent implied probability, consistent with historical results and the absence of competitive challengers. A realistic path to an upset would require an unusually strong Republican nominee combined with a significant national swing against Democrats by November 3, though Vermont's consistent voting patterns set a high bar for such an outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VT-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
거래량
$13,103종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VT-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Vermont's at-large House seat has remained in Democratic hands since 1990, with incumbent Becca Balint seeking a third term after winning by more than 30 points in 2024. Recent candidate filing deadlines confirmed limited Republican primary options ahead of the August 11 contest, while no major polling shifts or campaign developments have altered the district's structural Democratic advantage. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 93.5 percent implied probability, consistent with historical results and the absence of competitive challengers. A realistic path to an upset would require an unusually strong Republican nominee combined with a significant national swing against Democrats by November 3, though Vermont's consistent voting patterns set a high bar for such an outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VT-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$13,103종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Vermont's at-large House seat has remained in Democratic hands since 1990, with incumbent Becca Balint seeking a third term after winning by more than 30 points in 2024. Recent candidate filing deadlines confirmed limited Republican primary options ahead of the August 11 contest, while no major polling shifts or campaign developments have altered the district's structural Democratic advantage. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 93.5 percent implied probability, consistent with historical results and the absence of competitive challengers. A realistic path to an upset would require an unusually strong Republican nominee combined with a significant national swing against Democrats by November 3, though Vermont's consistent voting patterns set a high bar for such an outcome.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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