Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 82.5% implied probability against President Trump reducing the U.S. federal budget deficit before 2027, driven by the Congressional Budget Office's February 2026 baseline projecting a $1.9 trillion fiscal year 2026 (FY2026) shortfall—surpassing FY2025's $1.78 trillion—amid escalating net interest costs and mandatory spending on entitlements. Recent Treasury data through March 2026 shows a first-half FY2026 deficit of $1.2 trillion, $139 billion below the prior year thanks to tariff-enhanced revenues, yet March's $164 billion gap signals ongoing pressures from discretionary outlays. Trump's April FY2027 budget proposes a 10% cut to non-defense spending but ramps defense to $1.5 trillion, with CRFB analysis forecasting deficits averaging 6% of GDP near-term. FY2026 year-end results and potential debt ceiling negotiations represent pivotal catalysts.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.12.31
신규
신규
2026.12.31
The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 82.5% implied probability against President Trump reducing the U.S. federal budget deficit before 2027, driven by the Congressional Budget Office's February 2026 baseline projecting a $1.9 trillion fiscal year 2026 (FY2026) shortfall—surpassing FY2025's $1.78 trillion—amid escalating net interest costs and mandatory spending on entitlements. Recent Treasury data through March 2026 shows a first-half FY2026 deficit of $1.2 trillion, $139 billion below the prior year thanks to tariff-enhanced revenues, yet March's $164 billion gap signals ongoing pressures from discretionary outlays. Trump's April FY2027 budget proposes a 10% cut to non-defense spending but ramps defense to $1.5 trillion, with CRFB analysis forecasting deficits averaging 6% of GDP near-term. FY2026 year-end results and potential debt ceiling negotiations represent pivotal catalysts.
The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
마켓 개설일: Nov 5, 2025, 2:13 PM ET
거래량
$408종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 5, 2025, 2:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 82.5% implied probability against President Trump reducing the U.S. federal budget deficit before 2027, driven by the Congressional Budget Office's February 2026 baseline projecting a $1.9 trillion fiscal year 2026 (FY2026) shortfall—surpassing FY2025's $1.78 trillion—amid escalating net interest costs and mandatory spending on entitlements. Recent Treasury data through March 2026 shows a first-half FY2026 deficit of $1.2 trillion, $139 billion below the prior year thanks to tariff-enhanced revenues, yet March's $164 billion gap signals ongoing pressures from discretionary outlays. Trump's April FY2027 budget proposes a 10% cut to non-defense spending but ramps defense to $1.5 trillion, with CRFB analysis forecasting deficits averaging 6% of GDP near-term. FY2026 year-end results and potential debt ceiling negotiations represent pivotal catalysts.
The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
거래량
$408종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 5, 2025, 2:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 82.5% implied probability against President Trump reducing the U.S. federal budget deficit before 2027, driven by the Congressional Budget Office's February 2026 baseline projecting a $1.9 trillion fiscal year 2026 (FY2026) shortfall—surpassing FY2025's $1.78 trillion—amid escalating net interest costs and mandatory spending on entitlements. Recent Treasury data through March 2026 shows a first-half FY2026 deficit of $1.2 trillion, $139 billion below the prior year thanks to tariff-enhanced revenues, yet March's $164 billion gap signals ongoing pressures from discretionary outlays. Trump's April FY2027 budget proposes a 10% cut to non-defense spending but ramps defense to $1.5 trillion, with CRFB analysis forecasting deficits averaging 6% of GDP near-term. FY2026 year-end results and potential debt ceiling negotiations represent pivotal catalysts.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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